Teams behind Memphis in Pythag SoS, that u will never hear "they played a soft schedule" about simply because of conference affiliation:
Memphis: .6793(47th)
---
Wake Forest: .6779(48th)
Purdue: .6710(54th)
Oklahoma: .6693(56th)
Clemson: .6541(69th)
Marquette: .6458(73rd)
Missouri: .6090(90th)
You can do the same exercise with RPI and find the same(if not more teams) result.
The other main argument I hear is that these numbers have been reached without any marquee wins. Winning @Gonzaga by 18 certainly qualifies as that, though conventional wisdom not valuing Gonzaga(even though the market does) or even OOC road games is not something that surprises me.
It's worth noting that there are legitimate arguments at this point for keeping them as a #2 seed - Oklahoma can have it's losses without Blake Griffin reduced in weight, and otherwise it's W-L/SoS resume meets the test and Connecticut has not yet played worse without Dyson. That's not the point. The point is that to throw out qualifiers without going through the numbers is embarrassing, especially when you're an analyst on a large sports network.
Will try to do a favorites update after Poofler updates odds today.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Quick Blurbs - Update On Louisville's Offense
I commented on Louisville's offense a week ago in this post.
Here is an update via Basketball Prospectus:
"Louisville looked really good last night, winning at Georgetown 76-58. (Any team looks good when they make their first seven threes.) In fact the Cards seem to have turned over something of a new leaf since their debacle at Notre Dame 12 days ago. Rick Pitino's team has rebounded from their 33-point loss in South Bend to score 1.28 points per trip over their last four games, an impressive figure even given the uneven competition (DePaul, Providence, Cincinnati and the Hoyas). This miniature success story has had many authors, but it certainly hasn't hurt matters that Preston Knowles has gone 13-of-20 on his threes over that span. Needless to say, if Louisville can match their excellent defense with good offense, they will be a very tough out next month, no matter how highly-seeded the opponent."
The Cardinals did play Depaul(224th in Def. Eff.) and Providence (139th) in that stretch so the numbers could be somewhat inflated, but performances against Cincinnati(78th) and Georgetown (38th) are legitimate. Overall, their offensive eff. numbers have improved a bit from 56th to 47th at 110.9 points/100 possession.
Here is an update via Basketball Prospectus:
"Louisville looked really good last night, winning at Georgetown 76-58. (Any team looks good when they make their first seven threes.) In fact the Cards seem to have turned over something of a new leaf since their debacle at Notre Dame 12 days ago. Rick Pitino's team has rebounded from their 33-point loss in South Bend to score 1.28 points per trip over their last four games, an impressive figure even given the uneven competition (DePaul, Providence, Cincinnati and the Hoyas). This miniature success story has had many authors, but it certainly hasn't hurt matters that Preston Knowles has gone 13-of-20 on his threes over that span. Needless to say, if Louisville can match their excellent defense with good offense, they will be a very tough out next month, no matter how highly-seeded the opponent."
The Cardinals did play Depaul(224th in Def. Eff.) and Providence (139th) in that stretch so the numbers could be somewhat inflated, but performances against Cincinnati(78th) and Georgetown (38th) are legitimate. Overall, their offensive eff. numbers have improved a bit from 56th to 47th at 110.9 points/100 possession.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Fun Fact - Notre Dame Takes Care of the Ball, and it's Opponent's Ball Too?
Notre Dame leads the nation in both having the least number of turnovers and is last in the nation in forcing turnovers.
Unsurprisingly, the Fighting Irish also get to the line relatively infrequently(3rd to last in the nation) and send opponents very few times as well(11th). Just one example of how an aggressive defensive style is oftentimes correlated with fouls(strips that are sometimes reach-in's, etc.). A quick glance at TO% leaders confirms this with a few exceptions.
Unsurprisingly, the Fighting Irish also get to the line relatively infrequently(3rd to last in the nation) and send opponents very few times as well(11th). Just one example of how an aggressive defensive style is oftentimes correlated with fouls(strips that are sometimes reach-in's, etc.). A quick glance at TO% leaders confirms this with a few exceptions.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Bracket Odds - 33 Days Until Selection Sunday
Updated based on games and bracket projection through Sunday
Favorites Update:
[Seed]Team: Odds% (Odds% Last Update/Change)
1. [1]North Carolina: 13.1%(16.5%/DOWN 3.4%)
2. [2]Duke: 12.0% (13.0%/UP 1.0%)
3. [1]Connecticut: 11.7%(16.2%/DOWN 4.5%)
4. *[1]Pittsburgh: 10.4% (7.9%/UP 2.5%)
5. [3]Memphis: 7.0% (3.0%/UP 4.0%)
6. [4]UCLA: 5.0% (4.0%/UP 1.0%)
7. [2]Louisville: 5.0% (4.2%/UP 0.8%)
8. [2]Michigan St. 3.8% (2.3%/UP 1.5%)
9. *[8]West Virginia 2.7% (1.7%/UP 1.0%)
10. [4]Villanova: 2.6% (1.5%/UP 1.1%)
*These numbers were calculated before Pittsburgh defeated West Virginia by 11 points today. Kenpom's numbers had Pittsburgh -5.3 as fair, so one can expect both teams to move in the appropriate directions. The Panthers just knocked off the 3rd hardest game remaining in their schedule, so if they can hold serve elsewhere and win 1 of 2 against Connecticut, they will solidify their hold on a #1 seed. West Virginia becomes the latest victim of the monster that is the Big East, playing well against tough competition and blowing out mediocre teams, but not developing a good resume in the process, making them a ripe team to fall into bubble territory and surprise some people come March(Something I will comment on more later).
Dropped out:
11. [1]Oklahoma: 2.4% (2.6%/DOWN 0.2%)
12. [3]Clemson: 2.3% (3.1%/DOWN 0.8%)
14. [6]Gonzaga: 2.0% (5.7%/DOWN 3.7%)
Memphis didn't just flip places with Gonzaga. They flipped them on their belly and raped them. Again, losses like this are damaging in 2 ways. They hurt your profile, most likely hurting your odds at an easier draw, and also make your team worse by both the market and most metrics when they are major underperformances.
From this point on, Memphis is favored in every remaining game, is only expected to drop one, and has an outside chance at running the table in the rest of CUSA play. They definitely have the inside track at picking up another seed bump when the one of the #2 seeds begin to falter(Marquette did much earlier than expected). A #1 seed is not out of the question. The winner of the Memphis/Gonzaga game is the real Oklahoma that people are talking about(team with an easy schedule avoiding the gauntlet of ACC/BE play) slated for a spot on the top line.
The other fluctuations are largely due to the rearrangement of the bracket. In being the #1 overall seed, Connecticut does get the easiest #2 seed in Wake Forest(17th)(bracket construction success!), but also gets Memphis as the #3(5th), UCLA as the #4(6th), Missouri as the #5(9th). This grouping - Keith and I are calling it "the bracket of death" - was actually in North Carolina's side last week and was moved together.
Tomorrow I comment on teams that will be ripe for making an unexpected deep run in March. I will pick teams outside of the protected seeds, and possibly avoid teams I've already commented on(Gonzaga).
Favorites Update:
[Seed]Team: Odds% (Odds% Last Update/Change)
1. [1]North Carolina: 13.1%(16.5%/DOWN 3.4%)
2. [2]Duke: 12.0% (13.0%/UP 1.0%)
3. [1]Connecticut: 11.7%(16.2%/DOWN 4.5%)
4. *[1]Pittsburgh: 10.4% (7.9%/UP 2.5%)
5. [3]Memphis: 7.0% (3.0%/UP 4.0%)
6. [4]UCLA: 5.0% (4.0%/UP 1.0%)
7. [2]Louisville: 5.0% (4.2%/UP 0.8%)
8. [2]Michigan St. 3.8% (2.3%/UP 1.5%)
9. *[8]West Virginia 2.7% (1.7%/UP 1.0%)
10. [4]Villanova: 2.6% (1.5%/UP 1.1%)
*These numbers were calculated before Pittsburgh defeated West Virginia by 11 points today. Kenpom's numbers had Pittsburgh -5.3 as fair, so one can expect both teams to move in the appropriate directions. The Panthers just knocked off the 3rd hardest game remaining in their schedule, so if they can hold serve elsewhere and win 1 of 2 against Connecticut, they will solidify their hold on a #1 seed. West Virginia becomes the latest victim of the monster that is the Big East, playing well against tough competition and blowing out mediocre teams, but not developing a good resume in the process, making them a ripe team to fall into bubble territory and surprise some people come March(Something I will comment on more later).
Dropped out:
11. [1]Oklahoma: 2.4% (2.6%/DOWN 0.2%)
12. [3]Clemson: 2.3% (3.1%/DOWN 0.8%)
14. [6]Gonzaga: 2.0% (5.7%/DOWN 3.7%)
Memphis didn't just flip places with Gonzaga. They flipped them on their belly and raped them. Again, losses like this are damaging in 2 ways. They hurt your profile, most likely hurting your odds at an easier draw, and also make your team worse by both the market and most metrics when they are major underperformances.
From this point on, Memphis is favored in every remaining game, is only expected to drop one, and has an outside chance at running the table in the rest of CUSA play. They definitely have the inside track at picking up another seed bump when the one of the #2 seeds begin to falter(Marquette did much earlier than expected). A #1 seed is not out of the question. The winner of the Memphis/Gonzaga game is the real Oklahoma that people are talking about(team with an easy schedule avoiding the gauntlet of ACC/BE play) slated for a spot on the top line.
The other fluctuations are largely due to the rearrangement of the bracket. In being the #1 overall seed, Connecticut does get the easiest #2 seed in Wake Forest(17th)(bracket construction success!), but also gets Memphis as the #3(5th), UCLA as the #4(6th), Missouri as the #5(9th). This grouping - Keith and I are calling it "the bracket of death" - was actually in North Carolina's side last week and was moved together.
Tomorrow I comment on teams that will be ripe for making an unexpected deep run in March. I will pick teams outside of the protected seeds, and possibly avoid teams I've already commented on(Gonzaga).
Quick Blurbs - Why the Sooners Aren't Elite
Oklahoma is a 1 loss team, undefeated in conference play, and ranked 2nd in the nation in both the AP and coaches' polls. Spearheaded by a NBA lottery pick in Blake Griffin who KenPom loves on the basis of his overall efficiency, terrific Rebounding% numbers and an almost Hansborough-like ability to get to the foul line, the Sooners find themselves as the disappointing 18th most efficient team in the nation and the 10th team most likely to win it all despite being projected as a coveted #1 seed. The Sooners have played a legitimate schedule(52nd), with more of it to come so it's not as if they haven't gotten these wins against Dance-level competition. What is the disconnect?
Favored by 20 in Vegas(I will start to include these as well in my analysis, I think it's a good secondary metric to my model) and by 20.6 in our model, the Sooners beat Colorado(144th) by only 5 pts today - a 15 pt underperfomance of already low expectations. This underperfomance would had been equivalent to Depaul(192nd) upsetting Pittsburgh(4th) at home today.
Granted, you can cherry pick bad games from any elite team's resume, but the reason Oklahoma is ranked surprisingly low is that they have significantly more of these good, but not top 5 performances in their history. It just happens that in their case, these mediocre performances are disguised as close wins against middling or weak competition:
Date Opponent(Rank), Expectation(Result, Amount Underperfomance)
11/22 v.Gardner Webb(208th), Oklahoma -26.9 (Win by 4, 22.9 pt Underperfomance)
12/22 @Rice(258th), Oklahoma -22.1 (Win by 12, 10.1 pt Underperfomance)
12/30 @Arkansas(114th), Oklahoma -11.2 (Lost by 8, 19.2 pt Underperformance)
2/7 v.Colorado(144th), Oklahoma -20.6 (Win by 5, 15.6 pt Underperfomance)
*Some would argue that it doesn't matter what you do against bad teams as long as you win, but that is the topic of another article that has already been written many times. Here, it is suffice to say that it does matter to the point where if you're only edging out bad teams, it does not predict well of your chances against elite teams.
It's important that these expectations are for Oklahoma or teams similar to the Sooners such as Clemson, Purdue, or Arizona St. If Griffins' and Co. really wanted to be graded on an elite scale - Pittsburgh/Connecticut/Duke/North Carolina, you can tack on 3-5 pts(depends on the pace of the team) to the expected win amount.
None of the aforementioned teams have a loss as bad as @Arkansas, and the data shows they don't have as many underperfomances either.
Worst Losses:
Duke: @Michigan(67th)
UNC: v.Boston College(63rd)
Connecticut: v.Georgetown(23rd)
Pittsburgh: @Villanvoa(15th)
Memphis: v.Syracuse(35rd)
UCLA: N-Michigan(67th)
It's important to remember that the Sooners have a slew of good wins(N-UAB, N-Purdue, v.Utah, @Kansas St, v.Texas), and have their share of blowouts against mediocre teams[29 pt win v. American(115th)] and even good teams as well[(19 pt win v.Baylor(45th)]. I wouldn't be surprised if they started to exceed these expectations(I would lean on the over) or even made a deep run in the tournament. However, their current overall body of work and thus expectations indicates they are closer to teams like Clemson, Wake Forest, Washington, and Xavier, than they are to the North Carolinas and Connecticuts of the world. And like those first 4 teams, making it to the Elite 8 would be running good - not bad.
Favored by 20 in Vegas(I will start to include these as well in my analysis, I think it's a good secondary metric to my model) and by 20.6 in our model, the Sooners beat Colorado(144th) by only 5 pts today - a 15 pt underperfomance of already low expectations. This underperfomance would had been equivalent to Depaul(192nd) upsetting Pittsburgh(4th) at home today.
Granted, you can cherry pick bad games from any elite team's resume, but the reason Oklahoma is ranked surprisingly low is that they have significantly more of these good, but not top 5 performances in their history. It just happens that in their case, these mediocre performances are disguised as close wins against middling or weak competition:
Date Opponent(Rank), Expectation(Result, Amount Underperfomance)
11/22 v.Gardner Webb(208th), Oklahoma -26.9 (Win by 4, 22.9 pt Underperfomance)
12/22 @Rice(258th), Oklahoma -22.1 (Win by 12, 10.1 pt Underperfomance)
12/30 @Arkansas(114th), Oklahoma -11.2 (Lost by 8, 19.2 pt Underperformance)
2/7 v.Colorado(144th), Oklahoma -20.6 (Win by 5, 15.6 pt Underperfomance)
*Some would argue that it doesn't matter what you do against bad teams as long as you win, but that is the topic of another article that has already been written many times. Here, it is suffice to say that it does matter to the point where if you're only edging out bad teams, it does not predict well of your chances against elite teams.
It's important that these expectations are for Oklahoma or teams similar to the Sooners such as Clemson, Purdue, or Arizona St. If Griffins' and Co. really wanted to be graded on an elite scale - Pittsburgh/Connecticut/Duke/North Carolina, you can tack on 3-5 pts(depends on the pace of the team) to the expected win amount.
None of the aforementioned teams have a loss as bad as @Arkansas, and the data shows they don't have as many underperfomances either.
Worst Losses:
Duke: @Michigan(67th)
UNC: v.Boston College(63rd)
Connecticut: v.Georgetown(23rd)
Pittsburgh: @Villanvoa(15th)
Memphis: v.Syracuse(35rd)
UCLA: N-Michigan(67th)
It's important to remember that the Sooners have a slew of good wins(N-UAB, N-Purdue, v.Utah, @Kansas St, v.Texas), and have their share of blowouts against mediocre teams[29 pt win v. American(115th)] and even good teams as well[(19 pt win v.Baylor(45th)]. I wouldn't be surprised if they started to exceed these expectations(I would lean on the over) or even made a deep run in the tournament. However, their current overall body of work and thus expectations indicates they are closer to teams like Clemson, Wake Forest, Washington, and Xavier, than they are to the North Carolinas and Connecticuts of the world. And like those first 4 teams, making it to the Elite 8 would be running good - not bad.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Bracket Odds - 37 Days Until Selection Sunday
ESPN decided to start updating on Friday as well, therefore we will be bringing you 2 bracket odds updates per week. You can find the odds here, updated through Thursday's games.
Keith's Update
Favorites Update:
[Seed]Team: Odds% (Odds% Last Update/Change)
1. [1]North Carolina: 16.5%(15.2%/UP 1.3%)
2. [1]Connecticut: 16.2%(10.2%/UP 6%)
3. [2]Duke: 12.0% (23.1%/DOWN 11.1%)
4. [1]Pittsburgh: 7.9% (8.7%/UP 0.8%)
5. [4]Gonzaga: 5.7% (3.9%/UP 1.8%)
6. [2]Louisville: 4.2% (5.8%/UP 1.6%)
7. [4]UCLA: 4.0% (2.6%/UP 1.4%)
8. [3]Clemson: 3.1% (0.8%/UP 2.3%)
9. [3]Memphis: 3.0% (4.4%/DOWN 1.4%)
10. [1]Oklahoma: 2.6% (2.8%/DOWN 0.2%)
Dropped out:
Wake Forest 1.9% (3.2%/DOWN 1.3%)
Duke's loss is everyone's gain, but mostly UConn and Clemson's, despite the fact that neither improved it's seeding in this update. The model we use doesn't directly show any recency bias, so all games are weighted equally. This illustrates how 1 large overperfomance against another quality team can change even though it's only 1 game in 20 by this point.(UConn's 17pt win @Louisville, pre-game line was Louisville -2.1, Clemson's 29 pt win v. Duke, pre game Clemson +3.7)
It's interesting to note the absence of the other 2 seeds - Michigan St. and Marquette. Even with better seeding than some of the favorites on the list, Kenpom doesn't consider either to be amongst the most efficient teams in CBB nation - MSU/16th, and Marquette/22nd respectively.
As a result of this and the tough schedules each team is about to face, neither is a favorite to hold onto it's #2 seed come Selection Sunday unless either team performs above expectation. Marquette has the more firm resume thus far, but the Golden Eagles also have the more daunting schedule.
Michigan St.(8 games remaining)
2/10 Michigan St. -4.9 @Michigan
2/17 Michigan St. +3.8 @Purdue
3/1 Michigan St. +0.9 @Illinois
3/8 Michigan St. -3.2 v.Purdue
Marquette (9 games remaining)
2/10 Marquette +4.3 @Villanova
2/21 Marquette +3.7 @Georgetown
2/25 Marquette +3.1 v.UConn
3/1 Marquette +6.2 @Louisville
3/4 Marquette +8.9 @Pittsburgh
This is exactly what I mean when I say that Lunardi does a poor job in predicting the future. If today was Selection Sunday, his picks would likely be right, but if Marquette ran at expectation in these 5 games, it would come out with 1.4 wins. Let me say this again. The Marquette Golden Eagles will be running good by going 2-3 in this stretch. It doesn't take an expert bracketologist to realize that the they will drop out of their current position given that record.
Who then is in the best position to snatch up these coveted 2 seeds that these teams may vacate? We've already broached the outside possibility of UCLA getting up there, but who else?
Xavier, Gonzaga, Clemson, Wake Forest, Missouri(outside shot).
What do these teams have in common? They are all just behind the #2 seeds listed above and have easy schedules the rest of the way. Some even have the inside track on their conference or will be heavy favorites in their conference tournament, both of which the selection committee seems to value based upon looking at past years. MIGHT INSERT SOME DATA LATER TONIGHT. PLAYING FTOPS DONKAMENT GOGO.
Keith's Update
Favorites Update:
[Seed]Team: Odds% (Odds% Last Update/Change)
1. [1]North Carolina: 16.5%(15.2%/UP 1.3%)
2. [1]Connecticut: 16.2%(10.2%/UP 6%)
3. [2]Duke: 12.0% (23.1%/DOWN 11.1%)
4. [1]Pittsburgh: 7.9% (8.7%/UP 0.8%)
5. [4]Gonzaga: 5.7% (3.9%/UP 1.8%)
6. [2]Louisville: 4.2% (5.8%/UP 1.6%)
7. [4]UCLA: 4.0% (2.6%/UP 1.4%)
8. [3]Clemson: 3.1% (0.8%/UP 2.3%)
9. [3]Memphis: 3.0% (4.4%/DOWN 1.4%)
10. [1]Oklahoma: 2.6% (2.8%/DOWN 0.2%)
Dropped out:
Wake Forest 1.9% (3.2%/DOWN 1.3%)
Duke's loss is everyone's gain, but mostly UConn and Clemson's, despite the fact that neither improved it's seeding in this update. The model we use doesn't directly show any recency bias, so all games are weighted equally. This illustrates how 1 large overperfomance against another quality team can change even though it's only 1 game in 20 by this point.(UConn's 17pt win @Louisville, pre-game line was Louisville -2.1, Clemson's 29 pt win v. Duke, pre game Clemson +3.7)
It's interesting to note the absence of the other 2 seeds - Michigan St. and Marquette. Even with better seeding than some of the favorites on the list, Kenpom doesn't consider either to be amongst the most efficient teams in CBB nation - MSU/16th, and Marquette/22nd respectively.
As a result of this and the tough schedules each team is about to face, neither is a favorite to hold onto it's #2 seed come Selection Sunday unless either team performs above expectation. Marquette has the more firm resume thus far, but the Golden Eagles also have the more daunting schedule.
Michigan St.(8 games remaining)
2/10 Michigan St. -4.9 @Michigan
2/17 Michigan St. +3.8 @Purdue
3/1 Michigan St. +0.9 @Illinois
3/8 Michigan St. -3.2 v.Purdue
Marquette (9 games remaining)
2/10 Marquette +4.3 @Villanova
2/21 Marquette +3.7 @Georgetown
2/25 Marquette +3.1 v.UConn
3/1 Marquette +6.2 @Louisville
3/4 Marquette +8.9 @Pittsburgh
This is exactly what I mean when I say that Lunardi does a poor job in predicting the future. If today was Selection Sunday, his picks would likely be right, but if Marquette ran at expectation in these 5 games, it would come out with 1.4 wins. Let me say this again. The Marquette Golden Eagles will be running good by going 2-3 in this stretch. It doesn't take an expert bracketologist to realize that the they will drop out of their current position given that record.
Who then is in the best position to snatch up these coveted 2 seeds that these teams may vacate? We've already broached the outside possibility of UCLA getting up there, but who else?
Xavier, Gonzaga, Clemson, Wake Forest, Missouri(outside shot).
What do these teams have in common? They are all just behind the #2 seeds listed above and have easy schedules the rest of the way. Some even have the inside track on their conference or will be heavy favorites in their conference tournament, both of which the selection committee seems to value based upon looking at past years. MIGHT INSERT SOME DATA LATER TONIGHT. PLAYING FTOPS DONKAMENT GOGO.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Bracket Odds - 38 Days Until Selection Sunday
We're just over a month away from Selection Sunday. There have been enough games played that the bulk of most team's resumes have been developed and a good or bad game doesn't change the efficiencies of a team that much.
Using the ESPN bracket(which has been accurate in past years in determining which teams dance) and efficiency data from KenPom(which is a good predictor of future success), Keith has been generating the chances each team wins each matchup, advances to each round, or wins it all.
These projections are good enough for gambling purposes once you factor in 1)a team being under/over rated by Pom, 2)the numbers assume that teams play who is listed in this bracket, so just because a team has a hard(easy) road here doesn't mean they will have one in 6 weeks, 3)semi-homecourt advantage that might happen in the dance(more on this later). It's also worth noting that the win %'s are not taken directly from Kenpom because the numbers on his site are largely flawed.
These are based on data from Monday. Teams have moved in terms of both expected seeding and efficiency due to extreme under/over performances in the last 4 days.
Comments
Favorites: % are based as of Monday. Listed Efficiencies are updated as of Thursday.
1. [1]Duke(23.1%) - 1st in Kenpom Eff.
Before this week's slaughter at Clemson, Duke was such a sizeable favorite to win it all that it didn't matter that Duke's region had numerous teams Kenpom had as underseeded teams(West Virginia as the #8, Illinois as the #5, Louisville as the #2).
Despite the loss and the big drop in efficiency that come with it, Kenpom still has Duke as the most efficient team in the nation. Likewise, the odds for them to win it all are expected to drop from Kansas 2008-like levels(also >20%), but I wouldn't be surprised if Duke was still the favorite when next week's projected bracket is revealed.
2. [1]North Carolina(15.2%) - 3rd in Kenpom Eff.
Kenpom has operated under numbers that indicate North Carolina is among the favorites to win it all, but not way ahead-of-the-pack type numbers that many preseason predictions currently had. To think that they are still overwhelming favorites to cut down the nets in late March as many current betting markets still have is delusional.
3. [1]UConn(10.2%) - 2nd in Kenpom Eff.
This bracket actually had UConn as the #1 overall seed. Thus, the double digit win at Louisville doesn't provide them any better potential seeding in the next bracket, though it does solidify their holding in case they lose a game or two against Pittsburgh, Syracuse, or Marquette the rest of the way. It also improved their efficiencies to the point where it's on par with Duke and North Carolina now.
4. [2]Pittsburgh(8.7%) - 4th in Kenpom Eff.
5. [2]Louisville(5.8%) - 8th in Kenpom Eff.
Louisville is an interesting case as it's the only team in Kenpom's top 15 to be so weak on one side of the floor(Offense), but making up for it as the #1 team on the other side(Defense).
Of the 15 most efficient teams in the nation it is the only team to not have both of it's components not be ranked in the top 50 as the team's adjusted offense clocks in at 94th. The Cardinals have problems getting to the line(.329 FTA per FGA, 253rd) and making free throws(65.9%, 248th) once they get there and are only mediocre in the other Four Factors.
As expected, their defensive is excellent, but not in the way you would expect if you are familiar with their inclination to successfully full-court trap. While they are good at forcing turnovers (they force turnover's on 23.3% of opponent's possessions, 45th), they are superb at getting opponent's to miss shots (43.1% DeFG, 10th) and grabbing those misses (71.3% DReb%, 26th).
It will be interesting to see whether or not this relatively 1-sided team can continue their success through the post-season. Conventional wisdom says that a team that relies on one side of the ball will fail once it runs into a team that is competent on both sides, but the Cardinals have notched wins against such teams already in Big East play:
1/10 61-60 Win @Villanova (34th Off Eff./15th Def Eff.)
1/17 69-63 Win v.Pittsburgh (2nd Off Eff./27th Def Eff.)
1/31 69-63 Win v.West Virginia (36th Off Eff./6th Def Eff.)
6. [3]Memphis(4.4%) - 7th in Kenpom Eff.
7. [5]Gonzaga(3.9%) - 5th in Kenpom Eff.
Memphis and Gonzaga are both teams that are agreed to be good by the public/top 25 polls/betting markets, but Kenpom has them even better as top 7 teams. Thus, despite mediocre seeding that is probably only to improve for 1 of them(the H2H game this Saturday is the only remaining game against significant opposition), they are among the favorites to win it all.
Both programs are quite storied, so how is it that they are still under the radar compared to the polls? I have a couple answers:
Both teams dropped early games in the NC schedule when they were in the public spotlight. Memphis lost all of it's major NC games, @Georgetown(21st) in OT, N-Xavier(20th), and v.Syracuse(28th), though has since reeled of 13 straight wins in dominating fashion(look at MoV) and won @Tennessee(40th).
Gonzaga lost 4 of 5 games including a major slipup at home against Portland St.(100th) despite 2 wins against Tennessee(neutral and Away), @Washington St.(54th) and N-Oklahoma St.(48th).
8. [2]Wake Forest(3.6%) - 19th in Kenpom Eff.
Demon Deacon odds will drop significantly next week after a 30+ pt underperfomance @Miami. At least Duke could rely on a stronger opponent and a larger efficiency gap it had created in previous games.
It's worth noting that only 2 of the 3 Chapel Hill teams(Duke, UNC, Wake Forest) can be placed at at NC Greensboro for the first 2 rounds, so these teams aren't only competing for seeding, but also for 2-3 extra pts of Homecourt Advantage for 2 games. Wake Forest's H2H wins against both teams was a pivotal tiebreaker in case resumes were similar at season's end, but consecutive losses to Georgia Tech and Miami FL are starting to put them a step behind those two.
9. [1]Oklahoma(2.8%) - 12th in Kenpom Eff.
It's true that Oklahoma's low odds areas a result of Kenpom not having them as among the most efficient teams in the nation, but it's also because their half of the region is stacked with efficient teams in this bracket. Arizona St. as the #8, Gonzaga as #5, Georgetown as #12.
The ESPN talking heads have been mentioning how Oklahoma has a good chance to realize a #1 seed because they don't face the gauntlet that is the ACC or Big East, but the Sooners are through the easy part of their schedule, and face tough tests in half of their 8 remaining games. (Predicted spreads come from a model using Kenpom data)
2/11 Oklahoma -1.9 @Baylor
2/21 Oklahoma +0.3 @Texas
2/23 Oklahoma +5.2 @Missouri
3/4 Oklahoma -4.3 v.Kansas
If they drop 2 of these games, which is far from unthinkable, do we really expect them to hold onto the top line?
10. [5]UCLA(2.6%) - 6th in Kenpom Eff.
UCLA is finally performing at efficiencies mirroring the team's preseason expectations as a top 10 team. The problem for UCLA is that it's unlikely to improve it's seeding by much the rest of the way. This seems strange as they have a stranglehold on a BCS conference and have higher odds on winning the conference tournament as its hosted in Los Angeles. However, the rest of the conference schedule is riddled with possible losses:
2/12 UCLA +1.1 @Arizona St.
2/14 UCLA -4.1 @Arizona
2/19 UCLA +6.2 v. Washington
2/28 UCLA -3.2 @California
The losses against Texas(25th) and Michigan(83rd) are looking progressively worse as both teams continue to plummet, hurting the Bruins' RPI in the process. Also, the non-conference game against Notre Dame this Saturday doesn't even look like a legitimate opportunity to shore up it's non-conference resume now that the Irish(54th) have fallen in Big East play. Outside of that, UCLA's best NC win is a 64-59 win at home against Miami OH(67th)
I will try to do updates on Fridays(lots of games being played on Wednesday and Thursday) and Tuesday(weekend games + new projections released). I will probably comment on underrated/seeded teams that are likely to cause upsets next week. Stay posted.
Using the ESPN bracket(which has been accurate in past years in determining which teams dance) and efficiency data from KenPom(which is a good predictor of future success), Keith has been generating the chances each team wins each matchup, advances to each round, or wins it all.
These projections are good enough for gambling purposes once you factor in 1)a team being under/over rated by Pom, 2)the numbers assume that teams play who is listed in this bracket, so just because a team has a hard(easy) road here doesn't mean they will have one in 6 weeks, 3)semi-homecourt advantage that might happen in the dance(more on this later). It's also worth noting that the win %'s are not taken directly from Kenpom because the numbers on his site are largely flawed.
These are based on data from Monday. Teams have moved in terms of both expected seeding and efficiency due to extreme under/over performances in the last 4 days.
Comments
Favorites: % are based as of Monday. Listed Efficiencies are updated as of Thursday.
1. [1]Duke(23.1%) - 1st in Kenpom Eff.
Before this week's slaughter at Clemson, Duke was such a sizeable favorite to win it all that it didn't matter that Duke's region had numerous teams Kenpom had as underseeded teams(West Virginia as the #8, Illinois as the #5, Louisville as the #2).
Despite the loss and the big drop in efficiency that come with it, Kenpom still has Duke as the most efficient team in the nation. Likewise, the odds for them to win it all are expected to drop from Kansas 2008-like levels(also >20%), but I wouldn't be surprised if Duke was still the favorite when next week's projected bracket is revealed.
2. [1]North Carolina(15.2%) - 3rd in Kenpom Eff.
Kenpom has operated under numbers that indicate North Carolina is among the favorites to win it all, but not way ahead-of-the-pack type numbers that many preseason predictions currently had. To think that they are still overwhelming favorites to cut down the nets in late March as many current betting markets still have is delusional.
3. [1]UConn(10.2%) - 2nd in Kenpom Eff.
This bracket actually had UConn as the #1 overall seed. Thus, the double digit win at Louisville doesn't provide them any better potential seeding in the next bracket, though it does solidify their holding in case they lose a game or two against Pittsburgh, Syracuse, or Marquette the rest of the way. It also improved their efficiencies to the point where it's on par with Duke and North Carolina now.
4. [2]Pittsburgh(8.7%) - 4th in Kenpom Eff.
5. [2]Louisville(5.8%) - 8th in Kenpom Eff.
Louisville is an interesting case as it's the only team in Kenpom's top 15 to be so weak on one side of the floor(Offense), but making up for it as the #1 team on the other side(Defense).
Of the 15 most efficient teams in the nation it is the only team to not have both of it's components not be ranked in the top 50 as the team's adjusted offense clocks in at 94th. The Cardinals have problems getting to the line(.329 FTA per FGA, 253rd) and making free throws(65.9%, 248th) once they get there and are only mediocre in the other Four Factors.
As expected, their defensive is excellent, but not in the way you would expect if you are familiar with their inclination to successfully full-court trap. While they are good at forcing turnovers (they force turnover's on 23.3% of opponent's possessions, 45th), they are superb at getting opponent's to miss shots (43.1% DeFG, 10th) and grabbing those misses (71.3% DReb%, 26th).
It will be interesting to see whether or not this relatively 1-sided team can continue their success through the post-season. Conventional wisdom says that a team that relies on one side of the ball will fail once it runs into a team that is competent on both sides, but the Cardinals have notched wins against such teams already in Big East play:
1/10 61-60 Win @Villanova (34th Off Eff./15th Def Eff.)
1/17 69-63 Win v.Pittsburgh (2nd Off Eff./27th Def Eff.)
1/31 69-63 Win v.West Virginia (36th Off Eff./6th Def Eff.)
6. [3]Memphis(4.4%) - 7th in Kenpom Eff.
7. [5]Gonzaga(3.9%) - 5th in Kenpom Eff.
Memphis and Gonzaga are both teams that are agreed to be good by the public/top 25 polls/betting markets, but Kenpom has them even better as top 7 teams. Thus, despite mediocre seeding that is probably only to improve for 1 of them(the H2H game this Saturday is the only remaining game against significant opposition), they are among the favorites to win it all.
Both programs are quite storied, so how is it that they are still under the radar compared to the polls? I have a couple answers:
Both teams dropped early games in the NC schedule when they were in the public spotlight. Memphis lost all of it's major NC games, @Georgetown(21st) in OT, N-Xavier(20th), and v.Syracuse(28th), though has since reeled of 13 straight wins in dominating fashion(look at MoV) and won @Tennessee(40th).
Gonzaga lost 4 of 5 games including a major slipup at home against Portland St.(100th) despite 2 wins against Tennessee(neutral and Away), @Washington St.(54th) and N-Oklahoma St.(48th).
8. [2]Wake Forest(3.6%) - 19th in Kenpom Eff.
Demon Deacon odds will drop significantly next week after a 30+ pt underperfomance @Miami. At least Duke could rely on a stronger opponent and a larger efficiency gap it had created in previous games.
It's worth noting that only 2 of the 3 Chapel Hill teams(Duke, UNC, Wake Forest) can be placed at at NC Greensboro for the first 2 rounds, so these teams aren't only competing for seeding, but also for 2-3 extra pts of Homecourt Advantage for 2 games. Wake Forest's H2H wins against both teams was a pivotal tiebreaker in case resumes were similar at season's end, but consecutive losses to Georgia Tech and Miami FL are starting to put them a step behind those two.
9. [1]Oklahoma(2.8%) - 12th in Kenpom Eff.
It's true that Oklahoma's low odds areas a result of Kenpom not having them as among the most efficient teams in the nation, but it's also because their half of the region is stacked with efficient teams in this bracket. Arizona St. as the #8, Gonzaga as #5, Georgetown as #12.
The ESPN talking heads have been mentioning how Oklahoma has a good chance to realize a #1 seed because they don't face the gauntlet that is the ACC or Big East, but the Sooners are through the easy part of their schedule, and face tough tests in half of their 8 remaining games. (Predicted spreads come from a model using Kenpom data)
2/11 Oklahoma -1.9 @Baylor
2/21 Oklahoma +0.3 @Texas
2/23 Oklahoma +5.2 @Missouri
3/4 Oklahoma -4.3 v.Kansas
If they drop 2 of these games, which is far from unthinkable, do we really expect them to hold onto the top line?
10. [5]UCLA(2.6%) - 6th in Kenpom Eff.
UCLA is finally performing at efficiencies mirroring the team's preseason expectations as a top 10 team. The problem for UCLA is that it's unlikely to improve it's seeding by much the rest of the way. This seems strange as they have a stranglehold on a BCS conference and have higher odds on winning the conference tournament as its hosted in Los Angeles. However, the rest of the conference schedule is riddled with possible losses:
2/12 UCLA +1.1 @Arizona St.
2/14 UCLA -4.1 @Arizona
2/19 UCLA +6.2 v. Washington
2/28 UCLA -3.2 @California
The losses against Texas(25th) and Michigan(83rd) are looking progressively worse as both teams continue to plummet, hurting the Bruins' RPI in the process. Also, the non-conference game against Notre Dame this Saturday doesn't even look like a legitimate opportunity to shore up it's non-conference resume now that the Irish(54th) have fallen in Big East play. Outside of that, UCLA's best NC win is a 64-59 win at home against Miami OH(67th)
I will try to do updates on Fridays(lots of games being played on Wednesday and Thursday) and Tuesday(weekend games + new projections released). I will probably comment on underrated/seeded teams that are likely to cause upsets next week. Stay posted.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
How To Make Money in Super Bowl 43
In the Super Bowl, it is oftentimes profitable to bet the favorite MoneyLine(to win) as a result of an market inefficiency caused by a particularity in human psychology.
People don’t like to risk a lot of money to win a little money. The flip side is also true. People like to risk a little money to win a lot of money.
I’ve read quite a few studies/theses on this in fields outside of gambling, but a typical donk’s obsession with betting parlays and longshot futures should convince you of this. This usually manifests itself in the portion of the public that wants to bet the underdog(and there’s a lot of them) placing wagers on the ML and moving it artificially lower to a point where the favorite ML can be +EV.
How is it possible that this happens with the Super Bowl – the most efficient and transparent market in the sporting world – you ask? How can something be this well-known and open to millions of bettors be available? I have a few theories, though this is the strongest:
The inefficiency is localized: This phenomenon mainly exists on sports books that have a larger proportion of square/public/recreational clientele. This seems evident if we compare Vegas MLs with Online MLs with the assumption that online markets are sharper than Vegas ones just as online poker is.
Online:
http://www.sbrlines.com/LinesWebsite/Lines.aspx?l=2#/odds/nfl/whole_game/moneyline.html
Vegas:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money/
After gazing at these lines, one may wonder, what would be a fair ML? During the regular season a -6.5 -106/+6.5 -102 spread with ~47 total(current Pinny lines) would equate to a +/- 255 ML. It is possible that the game being played on a neutral field decreases the distribution of scores in the Pittsburgh -0.5 to Pittsburgh -6.5 range somewhat, but it is unlikely that it could be large enough to move it to more than a handful of cents.
LOL @ knowing having to know anything about sports – Steelers -200/-210/-220 - BIG.
(Also find yourself some a morsel of Cardinals +7 -115/Cardinals +230 for the middle/arbitrage)
People don’t like to risk a lot of money to win a little money. The flip side is also true. People like to risk a little money to win a lot of money.
I’ve read quite a few studies/theses on this in fields outside of gambling, but a typical donk’s obsession with betting parlays and longshot futures should convince you of this. This usually manifests itself in the portion of the public that wants to bet the underdog(and there’s a lot of them) placing wagers on the ML and moving it artificially lower to a point where the favorite ML can be +EV.
How is it possible that this happens with the Super Bowl – the most efficient and transparent market in the sporting world – you ask? How can something be this well-known and open to millions of bettors be available? I have a few theories, though this is the strongest:
The inefficiency is localized: This phenomenon mainly exists on sports books that have a larger proportion of square/public/recreational clientele. This seems evident if we compare Vegas MLs with Online MLs with the assumption that online markets are sharper than Vegas ones just as online poker is.
Online:
http://www.sbrlines.com/LinesWebsite/Lines.aspx?l=2#/odds/nfl/whole_game/moneyline.html
Vegas:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money/
After gazing at these lines, one may wonder, what would be a fair ML? During the regular season a -6.5 -106/+6.5 -102 spread with ~47 total(current Pinny lines) would equate to a +/- 255 ML. It is possible that the game being played on a neutral field decreases the distribution of scores in the Pittsburgh -0.5 to Pittsburgh -6.5 range somewhat, but it is unlikely that it could be large enough to move it to more than a handful of cents.
LOL @ knowing having to know anything about sports – Steelers -200/-210/-220 - BIG.
(Also find yourself some a morsel of Cardinals +7 -115/Cardinals +230 for the middle/arbitrage)
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