Using the ESPN bracket(which has been accurate in past years in determining which teams dance) and efficiency data from KenPom(which is a good predictor of future success), Keith has been generating the chances each team wins each matchup, advances to each round, or wins it all.
These projections are good enough for gambling purposes once you factor in 1)a team being under/over rated by Pom, 2)the numbers assume that teams play who is listed in this bracket, so just because a team has a hard(easy) road here doesn't mean they will have one in 6 weeks, 3)semi-homecourt advantage that might happen in the dance(more on this later). It's also worth noting that the win %'s are not taken directly from Kenpom because the numbers on his site are largely flawed.
These are based on data from Monday. Teams have moved in terms of both expected seeding and efficiency due to extreme under/over performances in the last 4 days.
Comments
Favorites: % are based as of Monday. Listed Efficiencies are updated as of Thursday.
1. [1]Duke(23.1%) - 1st in Kenpom Eff.
Before this week's slaughter at Clemson, Duke was such a sizeable favorite to win it all that it didn't matter that Duke's region had numerous teams Kenpom had as underseeded teams(West Virginia as the #8, Illinois as the #5, Louisville as the #2).
Despite the loss and the big drop in efficiency that come with it, Kenpom still has Duke as the most efficient team in the nation. Likewise, the odds for them to win it all are expected to drop from Kansas 2008-like levels(also >20%), but I wouldn't be surprised if Duke was still the favorite when next week's projected bracket is revealed.
2. [1]North Carolina(15.2%) - 3rd in Kenpom Eff.
Kenpom has operated under numbers that indicate North Carolina is among the favorites to win it all, but not way ahead-of-the-pack type numbers that many preseason predictions currently had. To think that they are still overwhelming favorites to cut down the nets in late March as many current betting markets still have is delusional.
3. [1]UConn(10.2%) - 2nd in Kenpom Eff.
This bracket actually had UConn as the #1 overall seed. Thus, the double digit win at Louisville doesn't provide them any better potential seeding in the next bracket, though it does solidify their holding in case they lose a game or two against Pittsburgh, Syracuse, or Marquette the rest of the way. It also improved their efficiencies to the point where it's on par with Duke and North Carolina now.
4. [2]Pittsburgh(8.7%) - 4th in Kenpom Eff.
5. [2]Louisville(5.8%) - 8th in Kenpom Eff.
Louisville is an interesting case as it's the only team in Kenpom's top 15 to be so weak on one side of the floor(Offense), but making up for it as the #1 team on the other side(Defense).
Of the 15 most efficient teams in the nation it is the only team to not have both of it's components not be ranked in the top 50 as the team's adjusted offense clocks in at 94th. The Cardinals have problems getting to the line(.329 FTA per FGA, 253rd) and making free throws(65.9%, 248th) once they get there and are only mediocre in the other Four Factors.
As expected, their defensive is excellent, but not in the way you would expect if you are familiar with their inclination to successfully full-court trap. While they are good at forcing turnovers (they force turnover's on 23.3% of opponent's possessions, 45th), they are superb at getting opponent's to miss shots (43.1% DeFG, 10th) and grabbing those misses (71.3% DReb%, 26th).
It will be interesting to see whether or not this relatively 1-sided team can continue their success through the post-season. Conventional wisdom says that a team that relies on one side of the ball will fail once it runs into a team that is competent on both sides, but the Cardinals have notched wins against such teams already in Big East play:
1/10 61-60 Win @Villanova (34th Off Eff./15th Def Eff.)
1/17 69-63 Win v.Pittsburgh (2nd Off Eff./27th Def Eff.)
1/31 69-63 Win v.West Virginia (36th Off Eff./6th Def Eff.)
6. [3]Memphis(4.4%) - 7th in Kenpom Eff.
7. [5]Gonzaga(3.9%) - 5th in Kenpom Eff.
Memphis and Gonzaga are both teams that are agreed to be good by the public/top 25 polls/betting markets, but Kenpom has them even better as top 7 teams. Thus, despite mediocre seeding that is probably only to improve for 1 of them(the H2H game this Saturday is the only remaining game against significant opposition), they are among the favorites to win it all.
Both programs are quite storied, so how is it that they are still under the radar compared to the polls? I have a couple answers:
Both teams dropped early games in the NC schedule when they were in the public spotlight. Memphis lost all of it's major NC games, @Georgetown(21st) in OT, N-Xavier(20th), and v.Syracuse(28th), though has since reeled of 13 straight wins in dominating fashion(look at MoV) and won @Tennessee(40th).
Gonzaga lost 4 of 5 games including a major slipup at home against Portland St.(100th) despite 2 wins against Tennessee(neutral and Away), @Washington St.(54th) and N-Oklahoma St.(48th).
8. [2]Wake Forest(3.6%) - 19th in Kenpom Eff.
Demon Deacon odds will drop significantly next week after a 30+ pt underperfomance @Miami. At least Duke could rely on a stronger opponent and a larger efficiency gap it had created in previous games.
It's worth noting that only 2 of the 3 Chapel Hill teams(Duke, UNC, Wake Forest) can be placed at at NC Greensboro for the first 2 rounds, so these teams aren't only competing for seeding, but also for 2-3 extra pts of Homecourt Advantage for 2 games. Wake Forest's H2H wins against both teams was a pivotal tiebreaker in case resumes were similar at season's end, but consecutive losses to Georgia Tech and Miami FL are starting to put them a step behind those two.
9. [1]Oklahoma(2.8%) - 12th in Kenpom Eff.
It's true that Oklahoma's low odds areas a result of Kenpom not having them as among the most efficient teams in the nation, but it's also because their half of the region is stacked with efficient teams in this bracket. Arizona St. as the #8, Gonzaga as #5, Georgetown as #12.
The ESPN talking heads have been mentioning how Oklahoma has a good chance to realize a #1 seed because they don't face the gauntlet that is the ACC or Big East, but the Sooners are through the easy part of their schedule, and face tough tests in half of their 8 remaining games. (Predicted spreads come from a model using Kenpom data)
2/11 Oklahoma -1.9 @Baylor
2/21 Oklahoma +0.3 @Texas
2/23 Oklahoma +5.2 @Missouri
3/4 Oklahoma -4.3 v.Kansas
If they drop 2 of these games, which is far from unthinkable, do we really expect them to hold onto the top line?
10. [5]UCLA(2.6%) - 6th in Kenpom Eff.
UCLA is finally performing at efficiencies mirroring the team's preseason expectations as a top 10 team. The problem for UCLA is that it's unlikely to improve it's seeding by much the rest of the way. This seems strange as they have a stranglehold on a BCS conference and have higher odds on winning the conference tournament as its hosted in Los Angeles. However, the rest of the conference schedule is riddled with possible losses:
2/12 UCLA +1.1 @Arizona St.
2/14 UCLA -4.1 @Arizona
2/19 UCLA +6.2 v. Washington
2/28 UCLA -3.2 @California
The losses against Texas(25th) and Michigan(83rd) are looking progressively worse as both teams continue to plummet, hurting the Bruins' RPI in the process. Also, the non-conference game against Notre Dame this Saturday doesn't even look like a legitimate opportunity to shore up it's non-conference resume now that the Irish(54th) have fallen in Big East play. Outside of that, UCLA's best NC win is a 64-59 win at home against Miami OH(67th)
I will try to do updates on Fridays(lots of games being played on Wednesday and Thursday) and Tuesday(weekend games + new projections released). I will probably comment on underrated/seeded teams that are likely to cause upsets next week. Stay posted.
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