Bracket Odds - 37 Days Until Selection Sunday

ESPN decided to start updating on Friday as well, therefore we will be bringing you 2 bracket odds updates per week. You can find the odds here, updated through Thursday's games.

Keith's Update

Favorites Update:
[Seed]Team: Odds% (Odds% Last Update/Change)

1. [1]North Carolina: 16.5%(15.2%/UP 1.3%)
2. [1]Connecticut: 16.2%(10.2%/UP 6%)
3. [2]Duke: 12.0% (23.1%/DOWN 11.1%)
4. [1]Pittsburgh: 7.9% (8.7%/UP 0.8%)
5. [4]Gonzaga: 5.7% (3.9%/UP 1.8%)
6. [2]Louisville: 4.2% (5.8%/UP 1.6%)
7. [4]UCLA: 4.0% (2.6%/UP 1.4%)
8. [3]Clemson: 3.1% (0.8%/UP 2.3%)
9. [3]Memphis: 3.0% (4.4%/DOWN 1.4%)
10. [1]Oklahoma: 2.6% (2.8%/DOWN 0.2%)

Dropped out:
Wake Forest 1.9% (3.2%/DOWN 1.3%)

Duke's loss is everyone's gain, but mostly UConn and Clemson's, despite the fact that neither improved it's seeding in this update. The model we use doesn't directly show any recency bias, so all games are weighted equally. This illustrates how 1 large overperfomance against another quality team can change even though it's only 1 game in 20 by this point.(UConn's 17pt win @Louisville, pre-game line was Louisville -2.1, Clemson's 29 pt win v. Duke, pre game Clemson +3.7)

It's interesting to note the absence of the other 2 seeds - Michigan St. and Marquette. Even with better seeding than some of the favorites on the list, Kenpom doesn't consider either to be amongst the most efficient teams in CBB nation - MSU/16th, and Marquette/22nd respectively.

As a result of this and the tough schedules each team is about to face, neither is a favorite to hold onto it's #2 seed come Selection Sunday unless either team performs above expectation. Marquette has the more firm resume thus far, but the Golden Eagles also have the more daunting schedule.

Michigan St.(8 games remaining)
2/10 Michigan St. -4.9 @Michigan
2/17 Michigan St. +3.8 @Purdue
3/1 Michigan St. +0.9 @Illinois
3/8 Michigan St. -3.2 v.Purdue

Marquette (9 games remaining)
2/10 Marquette +4.3 @Villanova
2/21 Marquette +3.7 @Georgetown
2/25 Marquette +3.1 v.UConn
3/1 Marquette +6.2 @Louisville
3/4 Marquette +8.9 @Pittsburgh

This is exactly what I mean when I say that Lunardi does a poor job in predicting the future. If today was Selection Sunday, his picks would likely be right, but if Marquette ran at expectation in these 5 games, it would come out with 1.4 wins. Let me say this again. The Marquette Golden Eagles will be running good by going 2-3 in this stretch. It doesn't take an expert bracketologist to realize that the they will drop out of their current position given that record.

Who then is in the best position to snatch up these coveted 2 seeds that these teams may vacate? We've already broached the outside possibility of UCLA getting up there, but who else?

Xavier, Gonzaga, Clemson, Wake Forest, Missouri(outside shot).

What do these teams have in common? They are all just behind the #2 seeds listed above and have easy schedules the rest of the way. Some even have the inside track on their conference or will be heavy favorites in their conference tournament, both of which the selection committee seems to value based upon looking at past years. MIGHT INSERT SOME DATA LATER TONIGHT. PLAYING FTOPS DONKAMENT GOGO.