Bracket Odds - 33 Days Until Selection Sunday

Updated based on games and bracket projection through Sunday



Favorites Update:
[Seed]Team: Odds% (Odds% Last Update/Change)

1. [1]North Carolina: 13.1%(16.5%/DOWN 3.4%)
2. [2]Duke: 12.0% (13.0%/UP 1.0%)
3. [1]Connecticut: 11.7%(16.2%/DOWN 4.5%)
4. *[1]Pittsburgh: 10.4% (7.9%/UP 2.5%)
5. [3]Memphis: 7.0% (3.0%/UP 4.0%)
6. [4]UCLA: 5.0% (4.0%/UP 1.0%)
7. [2]Louisville: 5.0% (4.2%/UP 0.8%)
8. [2]Michigan St. 3.8% (2.3%/UP 1.5%)
9. *[8]West Virginia 2.7% (1.7%/UP 1.0%)
10. [4]Villanova: 2.6% (1.5%/UP 1.1%)

*These numbers were calculated before Pittsburgh defeated West Virginia by 11 points today. Kenpom's numbers had Pittsburgh -5.3 as fair, so one can expect both teams to move in the appropriate directions. The Panthers just knocked off the 3rd hardest game remaining in their schedule, so if they can hold serve elsewhere and win 1 of 2 against Connecticut, they will solidify their hold on a #1 seed. West Virginia becomes the latest victim of the monster that is the Big East, playing well against tough competition and blowing out mediocre teams, but not developing a good resume in the process, making them a ripe team to fall into bubble territory and surprise some people come March(Something I will comment on more later).

Dropped out:
11. [1]Oklahoma: 2.4% (2.6%/DOWN 0.2%)
12. [3]Clemson: 2.3% (3.1%/DOWN 0.8%)
14. [6]Gonzaga: 2.0% (5.7%/DOWN 3.7%)

Memphis didn't just flip places with Gonzaga. They flipped them on their belly and raped them. Again, losses like this are damaging in 2 ways. They hurt your profile, most likely hurting your odds at an easier draw, and also make your team worse by both the market and most metrics when they are major underperformances.

From this point on, Memphis is favored in every remaining game, is only expected to drop one, and has an outside chance at running the table in the rest of CUSA play. They definitely have the inside track at picking up another seed bump when the one of the #2 seeds begin to falter(Marquette did much earlier than expected). A #1 seed is not out of the question. The winner of the Memphis/Gonzaga game is the real Oklahoma that people are talking about(team with an easy schedule avoiding the gauntlet of ACC/BE play) slated for a spot on the top line.

The other fluctuations are largely due to the rearrangement of the bracket. In being the #1 overall seed, Connecticut does get the easiest #2 seed in Wake Forest(17th)(bracket construction success!), but also gets Memphis as the #3(5th), UCLA as the #4(6th), Missouri as the #5(9th). This grouping - Keith and I are calling it "the bracket of death" - was actually in North Carolina's side last week and was moved together.

Tomorrow I comment on teams that will be ripe for making an unexpected deep run in March. I will pick teams outside of the protected seeds, and possibly avoid teams I've already commented on(Gonzaga).