Fun Fact - Memphis' FT Shooting Improves... From Within

Memphis 2008 FT: 61.4% (329th)
Memphis 2009 FT: 69.3% (153rd)

I've known for awhile that Memphis' FT Shooting has improved since last year - it's just been nothing to write home about until I realized today that Tyreke Evans isn't much of a charity stripe lock(69.6% on 161 attempts). The reason this struck me as awkward was that I assumed he was one of the causes for the upward movement given that the better shooters from last year's team (CDR and Rose) are now playing in the NBA.

So where is this improvement coming from?



Granted, it's a lot easier to improve in anything when you are already poor at it, but this kind of improvement, esp. from Taggart and Anderson are anything but typical. Without it, Memphis' mediocre offense (40th) would be much lower to the point where it would be something to worry about. Improving your FT shooting esp. in close games is anything but smexy, but PPP doesn't give a shit about where you get your points from. Just ask Jonny Flynn.

Oh yeah. It also helps to get rid of Joey Dorsey. 45-119 FT, 37.8%

Bracket Odds - 9 Days Until Selection Sunday

Favorites Update:
[Seed]Team: Odds% (Change)

1. [2]Memphis: 17.2% (UP 10.2%)
2. [1]North Carolina: 13.3%(UP 0.2%)
3. [1]Pittsburgh: 11.1% (UP 0.4%)
4. [1]Connecticut: 8.3%(DOWN 3.4%)
5. [2]Duke: 5.2% (DOWN 6.8%)
6. [4]UCLA: 4.6% (DOWN 0.4%)
7. [2]Louisville: 4.0% (DOWN 1.0%)
8. [7]West Virginia: 3.4% (UP 0.7%)
9. [2]Michigan St.: 3.4% (DOWN 0.3%)
10. [3]Kansas: 3.3% (UP 1.6%)

Dropped Out: [4]Villanova: 1.8% (DOWN 0.8%)

Other Notables(Above 2.0%)
Gonzaga: 2.9%
Missouri: 2.9%
Oklahoma: 2.6%
BYU: 2.3%
Washington: 2.1%

It's been quite awhile since our last update, but only a couple major changes loom. Memphis has escalated to the top of the efficiency rankings. They benefit from an easy road in this update, but would nonetheless be favorites in a schedule neutral bracket. Duke, despite it's recent rebound, has seen it's efficiency numbers take a dip. BYU registers with non-trivial odds to be this year's dark horse.

Bracket Analysis - Potential March Madness Home Court Advantage

Like all sports, homecourt advantage in college basketball consists of a variety of factors:
1. Travel: actual flying or bus, time zone adjustments, not sleeping in your own bed/typical gameday routine, distractions due to site seeing/partying, loss of preparation time, being away from friends and family.
2. Fans: heckling, noise/distractions during free throws, shots, and possessions, counting down the shot clock, Duke speedo guy, etc.
3. Refs: Influence of the homecrowd, home conference refs who may show preferential treatment to the home conference or at least be used to their play(ie. physical play not being a foul, etc.)
4. Equipment: not being used to floors/backboard/nets/rims, home players being familiar with images on the floor(know when they are near out of bounds/3pt line/etc. in a scramble), shape of a stadium changing the way things look or feel.

Depending on how many of these factors are present and to what degree, a typical DI NCAA game is worth about ~4.5 pts of HCA, though some as few as 1 and some as many as 7. Oftentimes, teams playing at favorable March Madness sites - near home with a large proportion of their fans attending, or at a site they play in conference every year - are the benefactors of a few points of HCA, despite the fact that are games are considered "neutral".

Here, I go over the teams that are likely to be placed in a site that will provide them with HCA and what seeds they have to get in order to attain them based upon bracketing rules. It's important to note that because of the way brackets are created, none of these situations are guaranteed, but the higher a team makes it's way up the S-Curve, the more likely it is to attain these benefits.

It is worthwhile to look through some basic bracketing rules to understand why how some of these pods are created, but here are some keys ones:
- There are 8 first weekend locations for each 4 pack of teams:
Miami, FL
Philadelphia, PA
Greensboro, NC
Dayton, OH
Kansas City, MO
Minneapolis, MN
Boise, ID
Portland, OR

- The selection committee tries to protect the top seed in each 4 pack from being at a geographical disadvantage in the 1st weekend, even if it is unable to gain an advantage. Hence, the term "protected seeds" for #1-#4s.

-Each city can host 2 foursomes(ie. 1/16//8/9 or 3/14//6/11, etc.), so that means only 2 top teams can earn the same preferred site, even if more than 2 are protected seeds(see UNC/Duke/Wake Forest trio later). Often, this means that if you're not one of those two, you might lucksack HCA by being a #5 seed or worse instead.

I have tried to guesstimate HCA points to each team based upon proximity to school, whether or not they've played in that city/arena before, and likelyhood of fanbase to travel with some attempt to scale for size of fanbase. Most of these are between 1-3 pts as it's very difficult to simulate normal HCA levels in a gym that is not your own.

A few other cavets before I begin:
- HCA can be relative, even though both teams may travel a sizeable distance. If UCLA plays Duke in Seattle hypothetically, I would expect some minor HCA in UCLA's favor due to 1) larger travel/time zone shifts for the Duke, 2)Pac 10 fans in Washington cheering for UCLA, etc. For the purposes of this analysis, I have just listed HCAs that likely exist regardless of matchups.

- There are often some hidden HCAs attainable by the non-protected seeds even in the first 2 rounds(see (10)Davidson in Raleigh, (11)Kansas St. in Omaha last year). These often result due to the limited time and complex bracketing rules the committee is faced with. They are difficult to predict and will be noted here in brevity.

- I have only included teams that have a reasonable chance at being placed in a spot that helps them. Clemson(projected #4 seed) may benefit some from being in Greensboro but there's almost no chance they get put there given that those pods will be led by a #1-#3 seed. On the other hand, South Carolina as a #9 has a legitimate chance at being there and is therefore listed.

Notation:
#(Current projected seed) Team, Location (HCA Pts)

Round of 64/32
#1 UNC – Greensboro (3)
#3 Duke – Greensboro (3)
#3 Wake Forest – Greensboro (3)
#9 South Carolina - Greensboro (1)
==========
Of Wake/Duke/UNC, only 2 of these teams will be at Greensboro. The next closest locations are Dayton and Philadelphia for whatever team that doesn’t get to stay in-state, and those sites have competition as well(Pittsburgh/Villanova/Louisville/Memphis/Michigan St.) Needless to say, Duke and Wake Forest still have something to play for in the next few days and the Tar Heels don’t want to completely collapse in the next 3 games either.

#1 Oklahoma – Kansas City (1)
#2 Kansas – Kansas City (3)
#3 Missouri – Kansas City (3)
==========
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Memphis are all competing to be in KC. This means that Wednesdays’(3/4) game between the Sooners and (Missouri)Tigers as well as the potential rematch between the two teams in the Big 12 donkament is definitely more than just a statement game. Kansas’ inner track to the #1 seed in the Big 12 Donkament where it can avoid both other teams is critical as well.

Each of the Big 12 teams is also hoping the Memphis Tigers’ stub their toes tomorrow @Houston as that will be the only remaining game where they aren’t double digit favorites(Memphis -9.2). Memphis plays the CUSA Donkament at home and thus are hudge favorites to win that(79%+). There is an off-chance that Memphis could be shipped to Dayton even if they end up ahead of all of these teams on the S-Curve.

#1 Pittsburgh – Philadelphia (2)
#3 Villanova – Philadelphia (4)
==========
At least in ESPN’s bracket, this pod seems to be forgotten after Lunardi slots in whichever of the 2 Big East powers is ahead at the time(Pittsburgh or UConn). I’ve seen both teams placed here, one of these teams with Villanova, or just 1 of these teams with someone else like Wake Forest, so it’s really hard to tell if there are some complex bracketing rules that are causing all this fluctuation.

This site is the nuts for Villanova if they can attain it. As far as I know, it’s the only site a team is allowed to go to that is within half an hour of the campus.

#2 Louisville – Dayton (3)
#2 Michigan St. - Dayton (1)
#5 Xavier – Dayton (3)
#10 Ohio St. - Dayton (3)
==========
Pittsburgh is slotted for Dayton as their backup if they don’t land a spot in Philadelphia. In that case, only one of these teams would be at Dayton to lead their 4-pack. Michigan St. could also be headed for Minneapolis even if it’s ahead of Louisville, so the Cardinals have a decent shot of a short trip and playing behind the home crowd regardless of what happens in their final 2 games and in MSG. Xavier is a long shot at this point given the logjam for this site(listed teams + Pitt/Memphis/3rd wheel of the Oklahoma/Kansas/Missouri trio), but has an outside chance at a large advantage, one that Lunardi has Ohio St. also having at this point.

#3 Washington – Portland (2)
#6 Gonzaga – Portland (1)
#6 Gonzaga – Boise (1)
==========
The lack of teams with elite resumes from the West Coast/Northwest means that Washington will probably be in Portland no matter what it does against Washington St. this week or in the Pac 10 Donkament next week.

The converse is also true. Very few top teams are jostling for the opportunity to be in either Oregon or Idaho. This means that you should not be surprised if the worst protected seeds(Clemson, Illinois, Purdue, Missouri in this bracket) or the 5’s just below them (Xavier, LSU, Marquette, UCLA(not as bad)) have to fly into the Pacific time zone and face someone like Utah St. or Arizona as a 12 seed and then Gonzaga or UCLA as a 5 seed.

#11 Florida – Miami (1)
#11 Florida St. – Miami (1)
#9 Wisconsin – Minneapolis (2)
==========
You have a similar phenomenon for the Miami and Minneapolis sites, but the HCA effect is less extreme as teams won’t be flying across the country through time zones.

Again, these estimates are rough and based on a rough knowledge of fan bases and GoogleMaps. If you've spotted some errors in judgment or a team I've missed, please leave a comment.

In a later update I will tackle the 2nd weekend and the Final Four.

Quick Blurbs - Why Conventional Arguments Can't Discredit Memphis for a #1 Seed

Teams behind Memphis in Pythag SoS, that u will never hear "they played a soft schedule" about simply because of conference affiliation:

Memphis: .6793(47th)
---
Wake Forest: .6779(48th)
Purdue: .6710(54th)
Oklahoma: .6693(56th)
Clemson: .6541(69th)
Marquette: .6458(73rd)
Missouri: .6090(90th)

You can do the same exercise with RPI and find the same(if not more teams) result.

The other main argument I hear is that these numbers have been reached without any marquee wins. Winning @Gonzaga by 18 certainly qualifies as that, though conventional wisdom not valuing Gonzaga(even though the market does) or even OOC road games is not something that surprises me.

It's worth noting that there are legitimate arguments at this point for keeping them as a #2 seed - Oklahoma can have it's losses without Blake Griffin reduced in weight, and otherwise it's W-L/SoS resume meets the test and Connecticut has not yet played worse without Dyson. That's not the point. The point is that to throw out qualifiers without going through the numbers is embarrassing, especially when you're an analyst on a large sports network.

Will try to do a favorites update after Poofler updates odds today.

Quick Blurbs - Update On Louisville's Offense

I commented on Louisville's offense a week ago in this post.

Here is an update via Basketball Prospectus:

"Louisville looked really good last night, winning at Georgetown 76-58. (Any team looks good when they make their first seven threes.) In fact the Cards seem to have turned over something of a new leaf since their debacle at Notre Dame 12 days ago. Rick Pitino's team has rebounded from their 33-point loss in South Bend to score 1.28 points per trip over their last four games, an impressive figure even given the uneven competition (DePaul, Providence, Cincinnati and the Hoyas). This miniature success story has had many authors, but it certainly hasn't hurt matters that Preston Knowles has gone 13-of-20 on his threes over that span. Needless to say, if Louisville can match their excellent defense with good offense, they will be a very tough out next month, no matter how highly-seeded the opponent."

The Cardinals did play Depaul(224th in Def. Eff.) and Providence (139th) in that stretch so the numbers could be somewhat inflated, but performances against Cincinnati(78th) and Georgetown (38th) are legitimate. Overall, their offensive eff. numbers have improved a bit from 56th to 47th at 110.9 points/100 possession.

Fun Fact - Notre Dame Takes Care of the Ball, and it's Opponent's Ball Too?

Notre Dame leads the nation in both having the least number of turnovers and is last in the nation in forcing turnovers.

Unsurprisingly, the Fighting Irish also get to the line relatively infrequently(3rd to last in the nation) and send opponents very few times as well(11th). Just one example of how an aggressive defensive style is oftentimes correlated with fouls(strips that are sometimes reach-in's, etc.). A quick glance at TO% leaders confirms this with a few exceptions.

Bracket Odds - 33 Days Until Selection Sunday

Updated based on games and bracket projection through Sunday



Favorites Update:
[Seed]Team: Odds% (Odds% Last Update/Change)

1. [1]North Carolina: 13.1%(16.5%/DOWN 3.4%)
2. [2]Duke: 12.0% (13.0%/UP 1.0%)
3. [1]Connecticut: 11.7%(16.2%/DOWN 4.5%)
4. *[1]Pittsburgh: 10.4% (7.9%/UP 2.5%)
5. [3]Memphis: 7.0% (3.0%/UP 4.0%)
6. [4]UCLA: 5.0% (4.0%/UP 1.0%)
7. [2]Louisville: 5.0% (4.2%/UP 0.8%)
8. [2]Michigan St. 3.8% (2.3%/UP 1.5%)
9. *[8]West Virginia 2.7% (1.7%/UP 1.0%)
10. [4]Villanova: 2.6% (1.5%/UP 1.1%)

*These numbers were calculated before Pittsburgh defeated West Virginia by 11 points today. Kenpom's numbers had Pittsburgh -5.3 as fair, so one can expect both teams to move in the appropriate directions. The Panthers just knocked off the 3rd hardest game remaining in their schedule, so if they can hold serve elsewhere and win 1 of 2 against Connecticut, they will solidify their hold on a #1 seed. West Virginia becomes the latest victim of the monster that is the Big East, playing well against tough competition and blowing out mediocre teams, but not developing a good resume in the process, making them a ripe team to fall into bubble territory and surprise some people come March(Something I will comment on more later).

Dropped out:
11. [1]Oklahoma: 2.4% (2.6%/DOWN 0.2%)
12. [3]Clemson: 2.3% (3.1%/DOWN 0.8%)
14. [6]Gonzaga: 2.0% (5.7%/DOWN 3.7%)

Memphis didn't just flip places with Gonzaga. They flipped them on their belly and raped them. Again, losses like this are damaging in 2 ways. They hurt your profile, most likely hurting your odds at an easier draw, and also make your team worse by both the market and most metrics when they are major underperformances.

From this point on, Memphis is favored in every remaining game, is only expected to drop one, and has an outside chance at running the table in the rest of CUSA play. They definitely have the inside track at picking up another seed bump when the one of the #2 seeds begin to falter(Marquette did much earlier than expected). A #1 seed is not out of the question. The winner of the Memphis/Gonzaga game is the real Oklahoma that people are talking about(team with an easy schedule avoiding the gauntlet of ACC/BE play) slated for a spot on the top line.

The other fluctuations are largely due to the rearrangement of the bracket. In being the #1 overall seed, Connecticut does get the easiest #2 seed in Wake Forest(17th)(bracket construction success!), but also gets Memphis as the #3(5th), UCLA as the #4(6th), Missouri as the #5(9th). This grouping - Keith and I are calling it "the bracket of death" - was actually in North Carolina's side last week and was moved together.

Tomorrow I comment on teams that will be ripe for making an unexpected deep run in March. I will pick teams outside of the protected seeds, and possibly avoid teams I've already commented on(Gonzaga).