Sliding Doors

Yesterday, I could've been cramming for finals and last-minute packing, prepared to get kicked out of housing by Stanford. Instead, I was at not so silent night where we watched jack's mannequin, the bloc party, franz ferdinand, death cab, and the killers.

A few thoughts:
Jack's mannequin's lead singer plays the piano, not the guitar. However, he still makes sure to pelvic thrust while playing. awesome.

Little girls should not be moshing.

Jenny was a friend of mine/spaceman/while you were young played live is better than sex.

I <3 College Basketball

Today: 3-0, +9.5u. (I haven't bet more than 2u on any single play until today)

Thank you San Francisco(5u)/Idaho St.(3.5u) Basketball. Ship 3 months rent!

Special commendation to Marist for their horrendous performance in the second half.

I HAS LOCKS!

Always nice to get a few of these out of the way with 1/4 of the season left to play...

Go Watch Role Models. That Is All.

Putting Your Money Where Your Mouth Is.

All of my friends say they support me without me even asking. Some of them are two-faced and think I'm lighting money on fire. On the other side of the spectrum, I have a friend who just recently invested a sum of money with me and has been returned with a 15% ROI in the first 2 days. Unsustainable, obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised if I doubled that money by the end of March Madness. Granted, that bankroll is only mid 4-figures which makes it an easy job, but I'm less concerned with the monetary aspects of the act, and more with what it says about their belief in me.

Which friend are you?

My Favorite Time of Year

College Basketball is Here. Can't wait for March!

Some people have complained that there isn't enough analysis/strategy on this blog, I can oblige:

The following is a graph of all D-1 college basketball games played in the last 3 years:



The X-axis represents the difference in points each Home Team is supposed to beat the Away Team by. This is predicted using data on pace(# of possessions/game) and efficiency(points/per possession) - putting the two together you get points/game for each team.
The Y-axis represents how the Away Team actually performed in comparison to these expectations.

Without knowing shit about CBB, you can see a couple of things:
1. This model has all data points spread around in a pretty even circle. ie, it is accurate and will be contributing highly to my sundance steak/new wardrobe/we still need a surround sound system in the house/thai hooker fund.

2. The circle is off-centered, to the right, showing the worth of Home Court Advantage. In this case, the circle is shifted ~5.1 points. Should Coach Dawkins offer to play all his home games at somewhere random in exchange for being spotted 5 pts? It doesn't matter. They are equal. Stanford would be pretty pissed off it couldn't sell tickets though.

Credit to Keith for helping me make graph.

Edit: To clarify, when people try to predict things in sports they are trying to come up with the fair line, where the distribution is even on all sides.(ie. When I say "The Blazers should win by 11 tonight", I am really saying, ~50% of the time they will win by <11, ~50% the will win >11, in a roughly symmetric distribution on both sides). This is why the circle is important, because it does just that. In contrast, here is an example of a model that is not predictive:

Overdue trip report from Warriors/Hornets opener

I’m going through my normal morning routine(online poker session, having lunch with a friend, booking sports bets) when my roommate calls from work. He asks if I want to go the Warriors opener tonight. Im like “wtf hell yes!” I finish booking my bets which includes 1 unit of Warriors +6 and go to take a nap. Apparently, the managing director at Lehman VC has had season tickets for 4 in the 8^th row for several years now and gives them to his underlings when he doesn’t go. One of the guys I went with said he went to 10+ games last year.

I get up at just as my roommate is getting home and get ready to go. Just as we’re about to leave, I see that the widely available line has moved to +7 making my +6 terrible, but one of my books has 7.5, so I tack on another unit. We pick up some friends and head to Oracle Arena. We get there just in time to get some of the last few warriors season opener t-shirts.

I generally think that viewing a sport in not the best way to learn about how good a team is, what wins, what a team needs to do to improve, etc. Without a large sample, it’s very difficult to pick out a sizeable difference in play and even then, people who blabber about having watched every game usually aren’t as quality of a source as you think they’d be. However, when the stat heads point out stuff, I look for them so here a few basketball related thoughts you should take with many dashes of salt:

Warriors: According to Basketball Prospectus, the Warriors project to be a much better team than what the ESPN-esque talking heads/public predicts, though there are a bunch of a considerations at play. They bring up a whole bunch of salient points that I watched for tonight.

BP: Baron Davis’ loss will be felt in the ways that people don’t really think about. Maggette is actually a more efficient player on the offensive end, despite a higher usage rate. Rather, it’s Davis’ defense and passing/running the point that will be missed and admittedly by them, not accounted for in their projections.

• What I saw: Checking now, the Warriors only had a true point guard on the floor for 13 minutes the whole game, which leads to the void led by Davis on the offensive end. Oftentimes, the ball would be brought up by Jackson and this definitely led to him not setting up for good shots and to turnovers. I’m not sure if the plan is to do this until Monta Ellis gets back - I highly don’t recommend it(BP also projects Marcus Williams relatively well if he ever gets a shot).

BP: A strong year for the Warriors relies on more of the offense running through Maggette(& Ellis when he gets back) and less from the inefficient Stephen Jackson.

• What I saw: Jackson hit a lot of tough shots tonight. A couple of 3s where he was well guarded and even a buzzer beater at the end of the third quarter to pull the Warriors within 1. However, his 26 points came at the expense of many missed shots(9-24 FGs) and 5 turnovers. Oftentimes, there didn’t seem to be a design for plays other than Stephen Jackson isolating and putting up a shot(sometimes a high % one, oftentimes not) In contrast, Maggette put up 27 points in a highly efficient manner(on 8-11 FGs and getting to the line frequently) However, a bulk of the points came in the 4^th quarter, which meant that for 3 quarters he wasn’t the focus of the offense.

BP: Contributions from Ronny Turiaf and Kellen Azubuike off the bench are critical to the Warriors success this year.

• Azubuike: If you don’t count Lamar Odom and if Nelson sticks with a short rotation, Kellen could be a nice candidate for Sixth Man of the Year. Despite missing some open jumpers, he played well – got to the basket, played well on defense, forced several turnovers on top of his own steals. Don’t have much to say on Turiaf based on what I saw today. Surprised the box score says he played 24 minutes. He was quite funny bumping up the crowd and doing funny dunk animations before free throws though. Would also like to add Biedrins to this group who played well today, smashing the offensive boards and playing reasonably well against Chandler.

Hornets: Basketball Prospectus has them regressing some this year despite the fact that Chris Paul’s performance is supposed to repeat his MVP-worthy season of 07-08. The problem is that all of his sidekicks - Peja, West, and Chandler are expected to regress some in the coming season.

BP: Their projections are particularly unkind to Stojakovic who is expected to downgrade from go-to scorer to shooting specialist this year.

• What I saw: In only watching this game, BP really hit the bulls-eye. Peja was pretty much only relegated to open jumpers after the ball was in West or Paul’s hands, and he didn’t even make the most out of them. Two of his 4 missed 3’s (1-5) were wide open, one on a break where Chris Paul gave him all day.

BP: In their research, Chris Paul’s performance last season was unprecedented. The most comparable seasons to Paul’s most recent one where he was 3 standard deviations above league average (in per minute win %) are Isiah Thomas and Magic Johnson’s early seasons(though differences in style and height make the comparison not perfect).

• What I saw: Every fastbreak Chris Paul was involved in was money in the bank. However, despite this and good numbers tonight, practically nothing in the half-court was run through CP3, despite the fact that a well-set pick often led him to be matched up against Biedrins or Harrington tonight with open lanes. This seemed to be partly a personnel issue as the Warriors often went with a “bigger” lineup, an efficiency I’m surprised the Hornets didn’t exploit more tonight.

Remember, 1 game – limited sample size.

The game was pretty awesome. It was a close game from buzzer to buzzer and went down to the wire though there was a disappointing climax(thats not what she said). I covered both the +6 and +7.5 bets, though that was in pretty good shape for most of the game so the final score(Hornets 108, Warriors 103) was quite disappointing. They had a bunch of kids dressed up as zombies and performed Thriller in one of the timeouts and its sad that the kid who was MJ probably has better moves than me. Supreme Soul performed during another timeout which was a pleasant surprise for me. One of the girls with them is actually one of my acquaintances at this bboy practice I go to which was surprising. Disappointed by the crowd after hearing all the stories about the Warriors/Mavs series. Lastly, I’m convinced that Isela the warrior girl wants me to do nasty things to her. Can’t wait to go again!(that’s whats she said)

Let the slaughter begin!

Beat: Getting crushed to open NBA season.

Brag: 8th row seats to Warriors' season opener.

Football Midseason Update

Mid-season update(FO projections):
The Good:
2.6u Balitmore Ravens over 6 Wins -115 9.3
2.5u Dallas Cowboys to MISS the playoffs +180 91.5% to MISS
2.5u Dallas Cowboys under 10.5 Wins +125 7.9
2u Detroit Lions under 6.5 Wins +125 2.3
1.8u St. Louis Rams under 6.5 Wins +115 5.1
1.4u Tampa Bay Bucs over 8 Wins -115 10.1
1.3u San Francisco 49ers under 6 Wins +145 4.9
1.3u Cleveland Browns under 8 Wins +100 6.5
1.2u Carolina Panthers over 8 Wins -115 10.4
0.8u Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North +850 22.9%
.5u Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North +1350 22.9%

1.0u	(NCAA) UNC Tar Heels over 6.5 Wins +105

1.3u	(NCAA) Texas A&M under 6.5 Wins +130

The Bad:
2.5u Seattle Seahawks to win NFC West -110 1.9%
1.3u Pittsburgh Steelers under 9 Wins +110 10.5
1.3u Atlanta Falcons under 4.5 Wins +120 8.9
1.1u Minnesota Vikings over 8.5 Wins -135 6.9

1.3u	(NCAA) Colorado Bluffs under 5.5 Wins +120

1.0u	(NCAA) Tennessee Vols over 8 Wins -105

0.9u	(NCAA) Clemson Tigers over 9.5 Wins -125

Up in the air:
2.5u Green Bay Packers over 8.5 Wins +125 9.0
2.2u Philadelphia Eagles over 9 Wins -115 9.8
1.3u Oakland Raiders under 6 Wins -115 5.4
1.3u Houston Texans over 7.5 Wins -105 6.5
0.8u Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC East +450 14.2%

1.0u	(NCAA) Miami Hurricanes over 7.5 Wins +105

LOL Rays Bullpen

Today I had the Tampa Bay Rays +148, 3u to win 4.44u($1200 to win $1778) to win Game 5. I was up ~15BBs(~$2,000) in poker when Tampa was up 7-0 in the 7th inning. 8 Boston Red Sox runs later I was also down 47BB in poker(~$3,600).

It's commonly said that in this business, you can tell whether you'll make it by how you react to your biggest downswings. Well, the shit hit the fan tonight[mentally, financially its just drop(albeit a pretty big one) in the bucket] and yet, I'm very happy with everything. Granted, I've just met some new people and gotten involved in some activities that have me quite excited, but I'm cheerful through the low points of my gambling odyssey as well. I will not be stopped.

Edit: Joey and I have been comparing the ALCS to the Presidential Race.
Rays - Blue Uniforms, Young, Message of Change, Large lead throughout the series, BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, Cliff Floyd, Edwin Jackson,
Red Sox - Red Uniforms, The Old Guard, Experienced, Been here before, All White Guys.

Knowing this, Obama should drop 4-5 points tomorrow :O

End of Baseball Season

All my regular season baseball bets are locked in. Went much better than my regular season betting.

8-1 on season win, 0-3 on futures, +17.59u

Wins:
6u Mariners u85(-115)/84.5(-115)/84(-105) Wins
1u Tigers u94.5 Wins -120
4u Devil Rays o72/74 Wins -120/-125
2u Devil Rays o82 Wins +195
2u Orioles o64.5 Wins -115
6u Marlins o69.5 Wins +100
2.5u Joe Blanton u15.5 Wins -130
2.5u BJ Upton BA u.295 -125 (.276)

Losses:
2u Angels u93 Wins -115 (90.9 Wins)
1u A's to win AL West 15:1
4u Indians to win AL Central 2:1
1u Yankees to win AL East +150

No Actioned:
2.5u Gary Matthews' Jr. u91.5 RBIs -125 (Not enough games played)

Pending Post-Season:
2u Mets to win the World Series 10:1

Start of Football Season

Here are my Football Futures(going to adding more in the coming days):

7/16

2.5u	Green Bay Packers over 8.5 Wins +100
2.6u	Philadelphia Eagles over 9 Wins -115
1.0u	Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC East +450
1.4u	Tampa Bay Bucs over 8 Wins -115
2.6u	Balitmore Ravens over 6 Wins -115
0.8u	Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North +850
1.2u	Carolina Panthers over 8 Wins -115
1.4u	Oakland Raiders under 6 Wins -115

Added 7/17

2.5u	Dallas Cowboys to MISS the playoffs +180
2.5u	Seattle Seahawks to win NFC West -110

Added 7/18

2u	Detroit Lions under 6.5 Wins +125
1.3u	Pittsburgh Steelers under 9 Wins +110

Added 7/20

2.5u	Dallas Cowboys under10.5 Wins +125

0.5u	Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North +1350

Added 7/27

1.3u	Atlanta Falcons under4.5 Wins +120

Added 8/1

1.3u	Houston Texans over 7.5 Wins -105

1.8u	St. Louis Rams under 6.5 Wins +115

1.0u	San Francisco 49ers under 6 Wins +130

Added 8/2

1.3u	(NCAA) Colorado Bluffs under 5.5 Wins +120

Added 8/17

1.0u	(NCAA) Tennessee Vols over 8 Wins -105

1.0u	(NCAA) Miami Hurricanes over 7.5 Wins +105

0.9u	(NCAA) Clemson Tigers over 9.5 Wins -125

1.0u	(NCAA) UNC Tar Heels over 6.5 Wins +105

1.3u	Cleveland Browns under 8 Wins +100

1.1u	Minnesota vikings over 8.5 Wins -135

Added 8/28

1.3u	(NCAA) Texas A&M under 6.5 Wins +130

Middle of Baseball Season

All-star break. Here's where my bets stand. (Crockpot Pace Projections in parenthesis)

The Good:
1u A's to win AL West 15:1 (28.4%)
2u Angels u93 Wins -115 (90.9 Wins)
6u Mariners u85(-115)/84.5(-115)/84(-105) Wins (67.2 Wins)
1u Tigers u94.5 Wins -120 (83.4 Wins)
4u Devil Rays o72/74 Wins -120/-125 (93.2 Wins)
2u Devil Rays o82 Wins +195 (93.2 Wins)
2u Orioles o64.5 Wins -115 (75.7 Wins)
6u Marlins o69.5 Wins +100 (80.1 Wins)
2.5u Joe Blanton u15.5 Wins -130 (5 Wins, On pace for 8.3 Wins)
2.5u BJ Upton BA u.295 -125 (.276)
2.5u Gary Matthews' Jr. u91.5 RBIs -125 (34 RBIs, On pace for 58.0 RBIs)

The Bad:
2u Mets to win the World Series 10:1 (7.6%)
4u Indians to win AL Central 2:1 (1.2%)
1u Yankees to win AL East +150 (14.6%)

WSOP Event #53 Update

Table started with 10 players - 7 left now. I need to win to advance and get a pay bump. I have ~14,000 chips left when average stack is about 45,000 with blinds at 1,000-1,500 and 1,500-3,000 stakes.

On the off chance I advance tomorrow(I would handicap it at ~8%), the final table will feature more in-depth coverage and will be shown live on ESPN 360 and http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/ around 10pm. If I get there I will be dedicating hands I play on TV to my people. First prize is $278,180.

Play to win.

Edit: Someone asked if I was having fun - I'm enjoying every second like it could end on the first hand today.

Unconfirmed, but I think they're going to start coverage on ESPN 360 at 2pm.

World Series of Poker Event #53

I'm in the money(guaranteed 5k) in Event #53. Round 2 starts at 10PM PST.

I'll be playing until 2AM tonight if I advance and then Day 2 is tomorrow. You can catch updates here:
Updates
Chip Counts

Edit: I can't nap - I'm tremendously excited.

Even though they took my name down and interviewed me briefly, it appears my name is not on WSOP's website. You can probably catch updates from the guys at 2+2 here.
Sweat Thread

Sin City

It's a few hours before I leave for Vegas. One of my high school teachers told my class that ever since the end of manifest destiny, Las Vegas has been time and again considered the "new frontier," bound with opportunity. That's exactly how I feel right now.

I've gotten a few requests to update throughout the summer, even though I didn't intend to when I wrote that first entry. I will try to oblige this request now and then, though I'd like to spend more time living and less time at the computer. Here's what has been happening so far:

The first stretch of summer has gone exactly as planned. I'm pretty happy with my progress bboying. I've been devouring books left and right. My parents have been teaching me to cook and I've been spending alot of time with my cousin as he might get locked away for a few months starting next week. I've explored more of LA in the last couple weeks than I did for most of high school.

Poker and sports betting have been quit successful so far. Thanks to the urging of a few friends, I've taken a more aggressive approach in moving up to High Stakes live games. I've already played a session of Bay 101's 80/160 game and two sessions at Commerce's 60/120. For those of you that have visited my room and seen my bridge chip sculptures before, I've had 8 black chips sitting on one of the bridges in order to keep me focused on one of my goals, moving up to 80/160 which uses those black chips. These three forays into High Stakes have been quite successful, but more importantly, I am comfortable in the game and feel that I am still one of the best players at the table each time.

Tommy Angelo, poker philosopher, wrote that every time you move up in limits, you need to adapt not only to changes in play, but also changes in culture. Sure it's the same game, just higher limits, but you're in a whole new world. Get used to the stronger play and the increased aggression. Be ready to call down light and snap off bluffs. Once you've gotten used to that feeling, you've arrived. Next stop is the Bellagio 100/200 game. While this is extremely ambitious given my goals at the beginning of summer, if I don't get that feeling by the time I leave Vegas at the end of July, this trip will not be considered a success.

Once I get to Vegas I'm going to setting up my online poker accounts, figuring out which sports-books we be most convenient for me to use in conjunction with my online ones, and playing a session of Bellagio 30/60 to get reacquainted with Vegas' more conservative play. I plan to do alot of sweating(watching friends as the play) with Nina and Scary_Tiger and watching of poker training videos. I will also be playing in the World Series of Poker's Event #53, $1500 Buy-in Limit Shootout, beginning on Tuesday 7/1.

I want to thank everyone who has been supportive in my endeavors and offered their input. By far and away, this was the most awesome thought I've received...

For this reason alone,

"I don’t want to wake up to a mid-life crisis stuck in a job I feel mediocre about or one that leaves me so tired that I’m frustrated when I come home to my kids. I don’t want to lay on my death bed with only memories of missed opportunities, regretting that I hadn’t taken more risks or chased more dreams. I want to live life on my own terms and this is the path I want to take. I’m ready for this."

I support you with all my heart. There's awlays going to be ups and down with every decision that you make. It seems like you developed way more of a solid plan and thought about all of the logistics before you consciously made your decision. Although it may seem like your're slightly torn, i don't see any real reason that is stopping you right now. Frankly my boy, it looks like you already made your decision. The only thing I'm iffy about is that you're going to be everywhere, and that leaves me with very little time to spend witn you. But I can't hold on to you forever right? Just promise me you will update me on your whereabout and I will faithfully read your blog and provide as much of my support as I can . But please promise me one thing, you're going to make every effort to see me before you venture off on your new exciting plans.

This is easily the most touching, platonic piece I've ever been written. Passages like this and the people that write them give me strength.

GOGOGOO!

It Begins

Dear friends(both poker-playing and not),

This summer I deferred an offer from a reputable environmental consulting firm in favor of playing poker and sports-betting full-time. I’m hoping these 3 months will serve as a microcosm for a career in professional gambling and allow me to decide whether I want to pursue this lifestyle permanently after I comeback for my last year at Stanford.

Why I Want To Do This

There are a lot of hedonistic reasons that make the poker lifestyle appealing, but I am making this decision because no other opportunity provides the same level of financial security and flexibility with time/travel to pursue my other passions. The most fulfilling job I ever had was at an environmental non-profit in Panama the summer after sophomore year. I had to pay my own way down there and cover all costs but it was worth every penny. There is a large part of me that wouldn’t mind picking up and moving back there to volunteer again for a year, but they just don’t have the money to pay me now and I fear that they never will. There are similar, closer opportunities like Habitat for Humanity that make me feel the same way, but for me, they all suffer from the same problems, a lack of financial safety and practicality. There are also a couple of hobbies that I regret not having pursued even though I’ve been fanatically interested in them since high school. Poker will provide the financial backing and extra time that will allows me to chase all of these dreams.

Poker has also been a dream in itself. I no longer get the rush from gambling, but rather, that degeneracy has been replaced by a more complex set of positive feelings. I am absolutely thrilled when I get the opportunity to execute a new play that someone experienced from Two Plus Two(poker website) has taught me. I feel damn sexy when I catch a “tell” no one else sees, allowing me to make a thin value bet. I look forward to continuing to improve my game amidst a group of people who are also ambitious about beating the highest-nosebleed stakes. I can’t even explain how it feels when I snap off a bluff in a way that screams “DO I LOOK LIKE I CAME HERE TO BE FUCKED WITH?” I am proud when I reflect on how much discipline I’ve shown both at the table and away from it allowing me to have come so far. I love poker!

Why I Shouldn’t Do This

Job Growth/Hole in Resume: This is the largest argument for keeping poker as a hobby on the side. However, I’ve already pointed out that Stanford, much less a full-time job does not afford me the schedule to pursue my dreams in a manner I would like to. It doesn’t even let me pursue poker in the way I want to. I want to continue in my journey in the poker world and eventually beat the highest stakes there are, but I also want to be done with this game by the time I’m 28-30. I don’t want to be one of those degenerates that sneaks out of the house when he should be with his family in 10 years, but I do want to get to the top. That takes an immense amount of time that is better suited for my young 20’s. Obviously, I am still continuing school and can rethink my options if this summer does not go well or I regress to being unhappy in this lifestyle.

Parental Approval: Some of you will be horrendously bothered by the fact that my parents have no idea that I even play poker at this level and would be infuriated that if they found out. There is a huge barrier in convincing them that I know what I’m doing and that it’s the best choice for me. I am hoping that success will lead to support in a F. Scott Fitzgeraldian manner as I don’t plan on holding out on them forever.

Lack of Contribution to Society/Waste of Talent: No matter how much money I make from this, I’m essentially playing a video game. The only part I truly buy about Marxism is that there needs to be a connection between a person’s occupation and their livelihood. Poker has about the largest disconnect there is as I’m just pushing stacks of money around. I plan to counter this effect by ensuring that my other dreams are prioritized over poker and also by researching non-profits and volunteer opportunities that I would want to work for if I decided to do this full-time. I would also be developing an exit strategy by reading everything I could about investing/real estate/stocks to ensure I can create a diverse passive income portfolio for the future.

Getting Engulfed by the Poker Lifestyle: I have seen some degenerate things in time in casinos and know that I am only human and can easily fall to that level. In the last couple of years, with the help of a few close, honest friends, I’ve come to realize that the little bit of change I’ve made has gone to my head, and I’ve started to make amends. I also don’t want to be burned out by clicking a computer screen and sitting in a cardroom for many hours a day. It’s good that I’m finally starting to reach a winrate that doesn’t require me to play a lot in order make a considerable amount and I see myself scaling back time spent in the next few years as I move up in limits.

Background

I’ve been playing poker seriously for the last 2 years. My primary cash cow has been live(in casinos) Limit Holdem at stakes 30/60-50/100, though I’m getting comfortable in online LHE 5/10-15/30. Averaging 8 hours of play a week over the past 6 months, I have made ~19k, a figure which is back loaded since I have successfully moved up recently.

My sports betting experience is just beginning. Despite a limited sample size, I feel I have the resources and track record necessary to beat college basketball and football at a steady clip(ROI>4%), while I’m still learning NBA, WNBA, and baseball. Learning how to win in sports betting is still mainly a training exercise as I hope it to be one of my sources of passive income in the future when my capital becomes large enough.

Re: my current financial status. I have a poker bankroll that sits at ~29k, a sports betting bankroll with ~12k, and a number of investments/pending sports bets with varying degrees of liquidity with ~14k in equity.

In pursuing both of these ventures this summer, a conservative back-of-the-envelope estimate has me hoping to make ~43k(36k from poker, 7k from sports betting) by the time fall quarter starts again. This will allow me to have the bankroll to safely play LHE 60/120-100/200 by the end of summer and make the move towards the bigger, staple online games(LHE 30/60). I want to save at least 80% what I make to continue growing my bankrolls, with 10% taken out towards my IRA/reoccurring CDs. I want to split 5% as a donation between Stanford in Washington and the Pi Tau Fund(AKPsi’s investment fund).

Schedule
6/16 (Stanford): Graduation
6/18-6/25 (Los Angeles): I want to spend my time at home with my parents before they head back to China and reconnecting with my brother now that we have the possibility of a good relationship. I also want to go backpacking or camping with a 1-2 friends in the middle of nowhere to clear my mind and focus on a critical junction in my life.
6/26-8/4 (Las Vegas): This should be the most intense period poker playing. I plan to spend a significant amount of time studying/reviewing hands/watching friends play in order to grow my bankroll and get better.
8/5-9/26 (Stanford): I’m coming back to the Bay Area the first week of August to start my housing lease and appear at another venture that’s still in the works. This should also be another intense period of pokering.
8/10-8/22 (China): Visiting my parents in China and translating at the Olympics.

I’m planning 3 week-long trips to Minnesota(July), Arizona(August) and a 3^rd trip in September to either the East Coast(Connecticut, Atlantic City, D.C.) or Macau. These trips intend to be business mixed with pleasure as I intend to play poker at the casinos in each of these locations, but I mainly want to take advantage of the free time that poker is allotting me to visit friends, travel, and live.

Goals
Recreational:

• Spend at least 3 days a week bboying/dancing. Find people in Vegas who can teach me and help me progress until I get back to the Bay Area.
• 3 gym sessions each week. Running at least once a week.
• Take advantage of my week-long vacations by being led by my friends instead of following the touristy itinerary.
• Read everything on my summer reading list.
• Learn to cook basic dishes and some fancy stuff.

Investing:

• Finish my main texts on personal finance and day trading. Solidifying my knowledge of basic investing topics.
• Setup my IRA and start automatic contributions. Ensure that I am on pace to max out the $5,000 amount by year’s end.
• Lay the framework for my energy startup. Brainstorm other long-term business ideas.
• Help establish more tools for the Pi Tau Fund in terms of both personal knowledge and resources that will be useful to the group.

Poker:

• Play 30 hrs a week. Spend at least 10 hrs a week playing online/live each.
• Study 10 hrs a week. Post at least 1 hand on Two Plus Two for every 4 hours that I play live/every 2 hours that I play live. Watch at least 3 DC/Stox videos a week. Talking about lesser hands with other high stakes players.
• Be playing 80/160 live and 30/60 online regularly by the end of summer.
• Become competent in No Limit and 1 other game that will be prevalent in mixed game rotations(Stud or Omaha).

Sports Betting:

• Read articles to get a true understanding of Kelly bet sizing, calculating my edge on bets made, bankroll management, etc.
• Acquire models or develop actually inputs for sports that I plan to bet for an entire season instead of just following knowledgeable 2p2ers. Deciding on which sports I want to focus on.
• Prepare for the start of football season by reading about off-season changes and learning about advanced football statistics(DVOA, etc.).

Conclusion

This decision has been muddling in my mind since the beginning of the year, but I’ve finally considered all the factors at play so that I can make a move. I am open to the possibility that I’m missing something important either logistically or personally, but I feel like there is a door that I have the skills, grit, and ambition to open.

I don’t want to wake up to a mid-life crisis stuck in a job I feel mediocre about or one that leaves me so tired that I’m frustrated when I come home to my kids. I don’t want to lay on my death bed with only memories of missed opportunities, regretting that I hadn’t taken more risks or chased more dreams. I want to live life on my own terms and this is the path I want to take. I’m ready for this.