A New Direction - College Basketball Analysis

The "I GET NO RESPECT", LOL SCHOOL and brag posts are getting kind of boring, so I'm going to do something constructive here. Namely give you enough information about college basketball to embarrass your all-talk, but don't know shit friends.

Here's what you can expect to come in the coming months:

- We're halfway through the college basketball regular season, so I will start commenting on the projected field for the Big Dance. To be fair, the major bracketologists out there are competent at evaluating resumes. That is to say, if you give Joe Lunardi the result of every game for the regular season, he can predict the 35 at large teams(and their seeding) very accurately. However, where he fails is his inability to predict the future - specifically, games remaining in the season(that will have a monstrous affect on who gets in/seeding) and odds of winning games once they get in. This is where sports betting markets come in.

Some tentative ideas I want to discuss are - How this year's cross section of teams will lead to easy/hard roads to the F4/Championship, potential upsets/mis-seedins/teams left out, partial home court advantages[some obvious(MSU as a top 4 seed), some not(Missouri as possibly an 11 seed!)].

- When Selection Sunday comes out, I will explain how to use the betting markets and basic game theory to get as much equity as you can in your March Madness Pool. In other words, How To Win Your Bracket Pool.

- For those that like money - Keith and I will be releasing plays together for March Madness. We may start as early as conference tournament time. These plays are generated via a Excel-based model using pace/efficiency data from KenPom, and then adjusted for injuries, matchups, *shudders* trends and intangibles.

If you want to be more literate you should read some of the links to the right regularly.

As an introduction to Basketball Sabermetrics you should start with Dean Oliver's Four Factors to understand what really wins basketball games and an introduction to advanced stats.

If you want to get a grip on the data I use, read Kenpom. If you're trying to determine which team has been playing better so far this year, check Kenpom. If you're trying to determine who's the more efficient player, James Harden or Stephen Curry, you should check Kenpom.

If you just like reading fuzzy stuff cause you've been weaned on ESPN garbage your whole life, you can just check Basketball Prospectus regularly - at least their content is mathematically grounded.

Belated NFL Futrues Grading

WINNARZ
2.5u Dallas Cowboys to MISS the playoffs +180
1.3u Dallas Cowboys under 10.5 Wins +125
2.2u Balitmore Ravens over 6 Wins -115
2u Detroit Lions under 6.5 Wins +125
1.8u St. Louis Rams under 6.5 Wins +115
1.3u Tampa Bay Bucs over 8 Wins -115
1.3u Oakland Raiders under 6 Wins -115
1.3u Houston Texans over 7.5 Wins -105
1.3u Cleveland Browns under 8 Wins +100
1.1u Minnesota vikings over 8.5 Wins -135
1u Carolina Panthers over 8 Wins -115

FAIL
2.5u Green Bay Packers over 8.5 Wins +125
2.5u Seattle Seahawks to win NFC West -110
1.3u Pittsburgh Steelers under 9 Wins +110
1.3u Atlanta Falcons under4.5 Wins +120
1.3u San Francisco 49ers under 6 Wins +145
1u Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North +850
0.8u Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC East +450
.5u Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North +1350

SISTER KISSER
2.2u Philadelphia Eagles over 9 Wins -115

10-4-1 on season o/u, 1-3 on futures
+10.03u on 32.71u wagered. 30.7% ROI.

Sliding Doors

Yesterday, I could've been cramming for finals and last-minute packing, prepared to get kicked out of housing by Stanford. Instead, I was at not so silent night where we watched jack's mannequin, the bloc party, franz ferdinand, death cab, and the killers.

A few thoughts:
Jack's mannequin's lead singer plays the piano, not the guitar. However, he still makes sure to pelvic thrust while playing. awesome.

Little girls should not be moshing.

Jenny was a friend of mine/spaceman/while you were young played live is better than sex.

I <3 College Basketball

Today: 3-0, +9.5u. (I haven't bet more than 2u on any single play until today)

Thank you San Francisco(5u)/Idaho St.(3.5u) Basketball. Ship 3 months rent!

Special commendation to Marist for their horrendous performance in the second half.

I HAS LOCKS!

Always nice to get a few of these out of the way with 1/4 of the season left to play...

Go Watch Role Models. That Is All.

Putting Your Money Where Your Mouth Is.

All of my friends say they support me without me even asking. Some of them are two-faced and think I'm lighting money on fire. On the other side of the spectrum, I have a friend who just recently invested a sum of money with me and has been returned with a 15% ROI in the first 2 days. Unsustainable, obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised if I doubled that money by the end of March Madness. Granted, that bankroll is only mid 4-figures which makes it an easy job, but I'm less concerned with the monetary aspects of the act, and more with what it says about their belief in me.

Which friend are you?