I've been suffering from too much all-day Irish Pub Crawl and running around LV booking crazy +EV derivatives to have the time do a full-write up on a bracket. You will have to settle for these simple steps and ask me to explain them at a later time.
The most important things are to 1) Pick what Vegas is picking be Vegas is rarely wrong, and if they are it's rarely by much, 2) Make picks that separate yourself from other people in your pool.
1. Look at the market-bracket at Poofler's blog. (You will notice that the first round is roughly equivalent to the Spread/MLs of the market.
2. Pick the favorites there.
3. If it's close(<60% for the 1st round for example), you want to pick against everyone else in your pool order to separate yourself from the rest of the people in your pool. The more people that you think will pick the favorite, the more inclined you should be to pick the upset. Some basic data for what people are picking can be found at Yahoo Sports, though it may not necessarily apply to the people in your pool. Sometimes you will pick both the Vegas favorite and against what other people are picking(see California, only 33.6% pick them, but Vegas has them as a slight favorite at 52.4%). This is the nuts.
-Things that people tend to pick:
Teams they are fans of.
Their alma mater.
Teams they see on national TV or in their conference.
Whoever ESPN is pimping in the last couple of weeks.
Whoever has a household name.
The higher seed.
4. ???
5. Profit!
P.S. Root for BYU/Memphis/WVa/Missouri for me. Thanx.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Bracket Analysis - Kenpom Based Model Bracket
Over the next few days I will be unveiling a number of different brackets. A couple I have are Vegas lines or Vegas steam/movement, and my personal opinion + game theory optimal if you were submitting a bracket in a very large pool.
I predict that alot of them will look very, very similar. This one is just the numbers - who should be favored in each matchup according to our Kenpom-based model. The only subjective element I have added is HCA.
I predict that alot of them will look very, very similar. This one is just the numbers - who should be favored in each matchup according to our Kenpom-based model. The only subjective element I have added is HCA.
Quick Blurbs - Memphis' Defense is Really Really Good...
#1 Adj Def Eff.(pts allowed/100 possessions, adjusted for Opp.) teams in the Kenpom era:
2004: Louisville 83.9
2005: Duke 84.9
2006: Iowa 84.4
2007: Kansas 82.2
2008: Kansas 82.8
2009: Memphis 79.4
2004: Louisville 83.9
2005: Duke 84.9
2006: Iowa 84.4
2007: Kansas 82.2
2008: Kansas 82.8
2009: Memphis 79.4
Quick Blurbs - Life After Jerome Dyson
Connecticut has played 7 of it's 31 games without Jerome Dyson which is not much of a sample size, but it will have to do given that we are headed for the true post-season now. Conventional knowledge says that Dyson is a secondary offensive option, but their lockdown perimeter defender.
Kenpom says confirms that he is not as efficient of a shooter, but is involved in a high volume of possessions and shots and as a distributor. He is also good at drawing fouls, an adept rebounder for his position and forces a good amount of turnovers.
Kemba Walker and Craig Austrie, who have picked up most of the minutes that would have gone to Dyson, are no slouches in their own right, but don't have the unique contributions that Dyson provides.
How have the Huskies played since his absence? Here is a snapshot of UConn's performance just after the Syracuse game in which Dyson was hurt and their entire resume:
Kenpom says confirms that he is not as efficient of a shooter, but is involved in a high volume of possessions and shots and as a distributor. He is also good at drawing fouls, an adept rebounder for his position and forces a good amount of turnovers.
Kemba Walker and Craig Austrie, who have picked up most of the minutes that would have gone to Dyson, are no slouches in their own right, but don't have the unique contributions that Dyson provides.
How have the Huskies played since his absence? Here is a snapshot of UConn's performance just after the Syracuse game in which Dyson was hurt and their entire resume:
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Fun Fact - Memphis' FT Shooting Improves... From Within
Memphis 2008 FT: 61.4% (329th)
Memphis 2009 FT: 69.3% (153rd)
I've known for awhile that Memphis' FT Shooting has improved since last year - it's just been nothing to write home about until I realized today that Tyreke Evans isn't much of a charity stripe lock(69.6% on 161 attempts). The reason this struck me as awkward was that I assumed he was one of the causes for the upward movement given that the better shooters from last year's team (CDR and Rose) are now playing in the NBA.
So where is this improvement coming from?
Granted, it's a lot easier to improve in anything when you are already poor at it, but this kind of improvement, esp. from Taggart and Anderson are anything but typical. Without it, Memphis' mediocre offense (40th) would be much lower to the point where it would be something to worry about. Improving your FT shooting esp. in close games is anything but smexy, but PPP doesn't give a shit about where you get your points from. Just ask Jonny Flynn.
Oh yeah. It also helps to get rid of Joey Dorsey. 45-119 FT, 37.8%
Memphis 2009 FT: 69.3% (153rd)
I've known for awhile that Memphis' FT Shooting has improved since last year - it's just been nothing to write home about until I realized today that Tyreke Evans isn't much of a charity stripe lock(69.6% on 161 attempts). The reason this struck me as awkward was that I assumed he was one of the causes for the upward movement given that the better shooters from last year's team (CDR and Rose) are now playing in the NBA.
So where is this improvement coming from?
Granted, it's a lot easier to improve in anything when you are already poor at it, but this kind of improvement, esp. from Taggart and Anderson are anything but typical. Without it, Memphis' mediocre offense (40th) would be much lower to the point where it would be something to worry about. Improving your FT shooting esp. in close games is anything but smexy, but PPP doesn't give a shit about where you get your points from. Just ask Jonny Flynn.
Oh yeah. It also helps to get rid of Joey Dorsey. 45-119 FT, 37.8%
Friday, March 6, 2009
Bracket Odds - 9 Days Until Selection Sunday
Favorites Update:
[Seed]Team: Odds% (Change)
1. [2]Memphis: 17.2% (UP 10.2%)
2. [1]North Carolina: 13.3%(UP 0.2%)
3. [1]Pittsburgh: 11.1% (UP 0.4%)
4. [1]Connecticut: 8.3%(DOWN 3.4%)
5. [2]Duke: 5.2% (DOWN 6.8%)
6. [4]UCLA: 4.6% (DOWN 0.4%)
7. [2]Louisville: 4.0% (DOWN 1.0%)
8. [7]West Virginia: 3.4% (UP 0.7%)
9. [2]Michigan St.: 3.4% (DOWN 0.3%)
10. [3]Kansas: 3.3% (UP 1.6%)
Dropped Out: [4]Villanova: 1.8% (DOWN 0.8%)
Other Notables(Above 2.0%)
Gonzaga: 2.9%
Missouri: 2.9%
Oklahoma: 2.6%
BYU: 2.3%
Washington: 2.1%
It's been quite awhile since our last update, but only a couple major changes loom. Memphis has escalated to the top of the efficiency rankings. They benefit from an easy road in this update, but would nonetheless be favorites in a schedule neutral bracket. Duke, despite it's recent rebound, has seen it's efficiency numbers take a dip. BYU registers with non-trivial odds to be this year's dark horse.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Bracket Analysis - Potential March Madness Home Court Advantage
Like all sports, homecourt advantage in college basketball consists of a variety of factors:
1. Travel: actual flying or bus, time zone adjustments, not sleeping in your own bed/typical gameday routine, distractions due to site seeing/partying, loss of preparation time, being away from friends and family.
2. Fans: heckling, noise/distractions during free throws, shots, and possessions, counting down the shot clock, Duke speedo guy, etc.
3. Refs: Influence of the homecrowd, home conference refs who may show preferential treatment to the home conference or at least be used to their play(ie. physical play not being a foul, etc.)
4. Equipment: not being used to floors/backboard/nets/rims, home players being familiar with images on the floor(know when they are near out of bounds/3pt line/etc. in a scramble), shape of a stadium changing the way things look or feel.
Depending on how many of these factors are present and to what degree, a typical DI NCAA game is worth about ~4.5 pts of HCA, though some as few as 1 and some as many as 7. Oftentimes, teams playing at favorable March Madness sites - near home with a large proportion of their fans attending, or at a site they play in conference every year - are the benefactors of a few points of HCA, despite the fact that are games are considered "neutral".
Here, I go over the teams that are likely to be placed in a site that will provide them with HCA and what seeds they have to get in order to attain them based upon bracketing rules. It's important to note that because of the way brackets are created, none of these situations are guaranteed, but the higher a team makes it's way up the S-Curve, the more likely it is to attain these benefits.
It is worthwhile to look through some basic bracketing rules to understand why how some of these pods are created, but here are some keys ones:
- There are 8 first weekend locations for each 4 pack of teams:
Miami, FL
Philadelphia, PA
Greensboro, NC
Dayton, OH
Kansas City, MO
Minneapolis, MN
Boise, ID
Portland, OR
- The selection committee tries to protect the top seed in each 4 pack from being at a geographical disadvantage in the 1st weekend, even if it is unable to gain an advantage. Hence, the term "protected seeds" for #1-#4s.
-Each city can host 2 foursomes(ie. 1/16//8/9 or 3/14//6/11, etc.), so that means only 2 top teams can earn the same preferred site, even if more than 2 are protected seeds(see UNC/Duke/Wake Forest trio later). Often, this means that if you're not one of those two, you might lucksack HCA by being a #5 seed or worse instead.
I have tried to guesstimate HCA points to each team based upon proximity to school, whether or not they've played in that city/arena before, and likelyhood of fanbase to travel with some attempt to scale for size of fanbase. Most of these are between 1-3 pts as it's very difficult to simulate normal HCA levels in a gym that is not your own.
A few other cavets before I begin:
- HCA can be relative, even though both teams may travel a sizeable distance. If UCLA plays Duke in Seattle hypothetically, I would expect some minor HCA in UCLA's favor due to 1) larger travel/time zone shifts for the Duke, 2)Pac 10 fans in Washington cheering for UCLA, etc. For the purposes of this analysis, I have just listed HCAs that likely exist regardless of matchups.
- There are often some hidden HCAs attainable by the non-protected seeds even in the first 2 rounds(see (10)Davidson in Raleigh, (11)Kansas St. in Omaha last year). These often result due to the limited time and complex bracketing rules the committee is faced with. They are difficult to predict and will be noted here in brevity.
- I have only included teams that have a reasonable chance at being placed in a spot that helps them. Clemson(projected #4 seed) may benefit some from being in Greensboro but there's almost no chance they get put there given that those pods will be led by a #1-#3 seed. On the other hand, South Carolina as a #9 has a legitimate chance at being there and is therefore listed.
Notation:
#(Current projected seed) Team, Location (HCA Pts)
Round of 64/32
#1 UNC – Greensboro (3)
#3 Duke – Greensboro (3)
#3 Wake Forest – Greensboro (3)
#9 South Carolina - Greensboro (1)
==========
Of Wake/Duke/UNC, only 2 of these teams will be at Greensboro. The next closest locations are Dayton and Philadelphia for whatever team that doesn’t get to stay in-state, and those sites have competition as well(Pittsburgh/Villanova/Louisville/Memphis/Michigan St.) Needless to say, Duke and Wake Forest still have something to play for in the next few days and the Tar Heels don’t want to completely collapse in the next 3 games either.
#1 Oklahoma – Kansas City (1)
#2 Kansas – Kansas City (3)
#3 Missouri – Kansas City (3)
==========
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Memphis are all competing to be in KC. This means that Wednesdays’(3/4) game between the Sooners and (Missouri)Tigers as well as the potential rematch between the two teams in the Big 12 donkament is definitely more than just a statement game. Kansas’ inner track to the #1 seed in the Big 12 Donkament where it can avoid both other teams is critical as well.
Each of the Big 12 teams is also hoping the Memphis Tigers’ stub their toes tomorrow @Houston as that will be the only remaining game where they aren’t double digit favorites(Memphis -9.2). Memphis plays the CUSA Donkament at home and thus are hudge favorites to win that(79%+). There is an off-chance that Memphis could be shipped to Dayton even if they end up ahead of all of these teams on the S-Curve.
#1 Pittsburgh – Philadelphia (2)
#3 Villanova – Philadelphia (4)
==========
At least in ESPN’s bracket, this pod seems to be forgotten after Lunardi slots in whichever of the 2 Big East powers is ahead at the time(Pittsburgh or UConn). I’ve seen both teams placed here, one of these teams with Villanova, or just 1 of these teams with someone else like Wake Forest, so it’s really hard to tell if there are some complex bracketing rules that are causing all this fluctuation.
This site is the nuts for Villanova if they can attain it. As far as I know, it’s the only site a team is allowed to go to that is within half an hour of the campus.
#2 Louisville – Dayton (3)
#2 Michigan St. - Dayton (1)
#5 Xavier – Dayton (3)
#10 Ohio St. - Dayton (3)
==========
Pittsburgh is slotted for Dayton as their backup if they don’t land a spot in Philadelphia. In that case, only one of these teams would be at Dayton to lead their 4-pack. Michigan St. could also be headed for Minneapolis even if it’s ahead of Louisville, so the Cardinals have a decent shot of a short trip and playing behind the home crowd regardless of what happens in their final 2 games and in MSG. Xavier is a long shot at this point given the logjam for this site(listed teams + Pitt/Memphis/3rd wheel of the Oklahoma/Kansas/Missouri trio), but has an outside chance at a large advantage, one that Lunardi has Ohio St. also having at this point.
#3 Washington – Portland (2)
#6 Gonzaga – Portland (1)
#6 Gonzaga – Boise (1)
==========
The lack of teams with elite resumes from the West Coast/Northwest means that Washington will probably be in Portland no matter what it does against Washington St. this week or in the Pac 10 Donkament next week.
The converse is also true. Very few top teams are jostling for the opportunity to be in either Oregon or Idaho. This means that you should not be surprised if the worst protected seeds(Clemson, Illinois, Purdue, Missouri in this bracket) or the 5’s just below them (Xavier, LSU, Marquette, UCLA(not as bad)) have to fly into the Pacific time zone and face someone like Utah St. or Arizona as a 12 seed and then Gonzaga or UCLA as a 5 seed.
#11 Florida – Miami (1)
#11 Florida St. – Miami (1)
#9 Wisconsin – Minneapolis (2)
==========
You have a similar phenomenon for the Miami and Minneapolis sites, but the HCA effect is less extreme as teams won’t be flying across the country through time zones.
Again, these estimates are rough and based on a rough knowledge of fan bases and GoogleMaps. If you've spotted some errors in judgment or a team I've missed, please leave a comment.
In a later update I will tackle the 2nd weekend and the Final Four.
1. Travel: actual flying or bus, time zone adjustments, not sleeping in your own bed/typical gameday routine, distractions due to site seeing/partying, loss of preparation time, being away from friends and family.
2. Fans: heckling, noise/distractions during free throws, shots, and possessions, counting down the shot clock, Duke speedo guy, etc.
3. Refs: Influence of the homecrowd, home conference refs who may show preferential treatment to the home conference or at least be used to their play(ie. physical play not being a foul, etc.)
4. Equipment: not being used to floors/backboard/nets/rims, home players being familiar with images on the floor(know when they are near out of bounds/3pt line/etc. in a scramble), shape of a stadium changing the way things look or feel.
Depending on how many of these factors are present and to what degree, a typical DI NCAA game is worth about ~4.5 pts of HCA, though some as few as 1 and some as many as 7. Oftentimes, teams playing at favorable March Madness sites - near home with a large proportion of their fans attending, or at a site they play in conference every year - are the benefactors of a few points of HCA, despite the fact that are games are considered "neutral".
Here, I go over the teams that are likely to be placed in a site that will provide them with HCA and what seeds they have to get in order to attain them based upon bracketing rules. It's important to note that because of the way brackets are created, none of these situations are guaranteed, but the higher a team makes it's way up the S-Curve, the more likely it is to attain these benefits.
It is worthwhile to look through some basic bracketing rules to understand why how some of these pods are created, but here are some keys ones:
- There are 8 first weekend locations for each 4 pack of teams:
Miami, FL
Philadelphia, PA
Greensboro, NC
Dayton, OH
Kansas City, MO
Minneapolis, MN
Boise, ID
Portland, OR
- The selection committee tries to protect the top seed in each 4 pack from being at a geographical disadvantage in the 1st weekend, even if it is unable to gain an advantage. Hence, the term "protected seeds" for #1-#4s.
-Each city can host 2 foursomes(ie. 1/16//8/9 or 3/14//6/11, etc.), so that means only 2 top teams can earn the same preferred site, even if more than 2 are protected seeds(see UNC/Duke/Wake Forest trio later). Often, this means that if you're not one of those two, you might lucksack HCA by being a #5 seed or worse instead.
I have tried to guesstimate HCA points to each team based upon proximity to school, whether or not they've played in that city/arena before, and likelyhood of fanbase to travel with some attempt to scale for size of fanbase. Most of these are between 1-3 pts as it's very difficult to simulate normal HCA levels in a gym that is not your own.
A few other cavets before I begin:
- HCA can be relative, even though both teams may travel a sizeable distance. If UCLA plays Duke in Seattle hypothetically, I would expect some minor HCA in UCLA's favor due to 1) larger travel/time zone shifts for the Duke, 2)Pac 10 fans in Washington cheering for UCLA, etc. For the purposes of this analysis, I have just listed HCAs that likely exist regardless of matchups.
- There are often some hidden HCAs attainable by the non-protected seeds even in the first 2 rounds(see (10)Davidson in Raleigh, (11)Kansas St. in Omaha last year). These often result due to the limited time and complex bracketing rules the committee is faced with. They are difficult to predict and will be noted here in brevity.
- I have only included teams that have a reasonable chance at being placed in a spot that helps them. Clemson(projected #4 seed) may benefit some from being in Greensboro but there's almost no chance they get put there given that those pods will be led by a #1-#3 seed. On the other hand, South Carolina as a #9 has a legitimate chance at being there and is therefore listed.
Notation:
#(Current projected seed) Team, Location (HCA Pts)
Round of 64/32
#1 UNC – Greensboro (3)
#3 Duke – Greensboro (3)
#3 Wake Forest – Greensboro (3)
#9 South Carolina - Greensboro (1)
==========
Of Wake/Duke/UNC, only 2 of these teams will be at Greensboro. The next closest locations are Dayton and Philadelphia for whatever team that doesn’t get to stay in-state, and those sites have competition as well(Pittsburgh/Villanova/Louisville/Memphis/Michigan St.) Needless to say, Duke and Wake Forest still have something to play for in the next few days and the Tar Heels don’t want to completely collapse in the next 3 games either.
#1 Oklahoma – Kansas City (1)
#2 Kansas – Kansas City (3)
#3 Missouri – Kansas City (3)
==========
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Memphis are all competing to be in KC. This means that Wednesdays’(3/4) game between the Sooners and (Missouri)Tigers as well as the potential rematch between the two teams in the Big 12 donkament is definitely more than just a statement game. Kansas’ inner track to the #1 seed in the Big 12 Donkament where it can avoid both other teams is critical as well.
Each of the Big 12 teams is also hoping the Memphis Tigers’ stub their toes tomorrow @Houston as that will be the only remaining game where they aren’t double digit favorites(Memphis -9.2). Memphis plays the CUSA Donkament at home and thus are hudge favorites to win that(79%+). There is an off-chance that Memphis could be shipped to Dayton even if they end up ahead of all of these teams on the S-Curve.
#1 Pittsburgh – Philadelphia (2)
#3 Villanova – Philadelphia (4)
==========
At least in ESPN’s bracket, this pod seems to be forgotten after Lunardi slots in whichever of the 2 Big East powers is ahead at the time(Pittsburgh or UConn). I’ve seen both teams placed here, one of these teams with Villanova, or just 1 of these teams with someone else like Wake Forest, so it’s really hard to tell if there are some complex bracketing rules that are causing all this fluctuation.
This site is the nuts for Villanova if they can attain it. As far as I know, it’s the only site a team is allowed to go to that is within half an hour of the campus.
#2 Louisville – Dayton (3)
#2 Michigan St. - Dayton (1)
#5 Xavier – Dayton (3)
#10 Ohio St. - Dayton (3)
==========
Pittsburgh is slotted for Dayton as their backup if they don’t land a spot in Philadelphia. In that case, only one of these teams would be at Dayton to lead their 4-pack. Michigan St. could also be headed for Minneapolis even if it’s ahead of Louisville, so the Cardinals have a decent shot of a short trip and playing behind the home crowd regardless of what happens in their final 2 games and in MSG. Xavier is a long shot at this point given the logjam for this site(listed teams + Pitt/Memphis/3rd wheel of the Oklahoma/Kansas/Missouri trio), but has an outside chance at a large advantage, one that Lunardi has Ohio St. also having at this point.
#3 Washington – Portland (2)
#6 Gonzaga – Portland (1)
#6 Gonzaga – Boise (1)
==========
The lack of teams with elite resumes from the West Coast/Northwest means that Washington will probably be in Portland no matter what it does against Washington St. this week or in the Pac 10 Donkament next week.
The converse is also true. Very few top teams are jostling for the opportunity to be in either Oregon or Idaho. This means that you should not be surprised if the worst protected seeds(Clemson, Illinois, Purdue, Missouri in this bracket) or the 5’s just below them (Xavier, LSU, Marquette, UCLA(not as bad)) have to fly into the Pacific time zone and face someone like Utah St. or Arizona as a 12 seed and then Gonzaga or UCLA as a 5 seed.
#11 Florida – Miami (1)
#11 Florida St. – Miami (1)
#9 Wisconsin – Minneapolis (2)
==========
You have a similar phenomenon for the Miami and Minneapolis sites, but the HCA effect is less extreme as teams won’t be flying across the country through time zones.
Again, these estimates are rough and based on a rough knowledge of fan bases and GoogleMaps. If you've spotted some errors in judgment or a team I've missed, please leave a comment.
In a later update I will tackle the 2nd weekend and the Final Four.
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